Trump has stated he will cut American aid to Ukraine, which makes a majority of total aid. Recently Zelensky stated that if Ukraine’s only hope for sovereignty is its own nuclear arsenal, they will build it.
My sympathy for Ukraine says they should.
My survival instincts as an American would say they shouldn’t because then Russia get big mad and nuke us. I don’t enjoy radiation, so my survival brain is saying they shouldn’t.
But my suicidal brain after seeing the result of the US presidential election says: Fuck it, let them do whatever, hell we can even gift some to them. Climate is fucked anyways. Lets pretend this is a sandbox game and see what happens. What’s the worst that can happen, die? Hehe I’ve been dying inside and November 5 just cut off my life support.
So it depends which alter ego you ask. Ye know, like the angel and demon on your shoulders.
Edit: holy shit its 2AM and I’m wasting time on Lemmy. that just shows how dead on the inside i am… cant sleep, fucking election anxiety.
Lets pretend this is a sandbox game
Stop all childish talk. It is dead serious.
Fighting global warming with… nuclear winter.
🤔c/UnexpectedFuturama
I thought futurama fought it by pushing the earth into a more distant orbit by means of robot ass blasting
That too, but there was also a gag in an episode where they’re at a ski lodge where Fry says, “Thank god global warming never happened,” and Leela responds, “Actually it did, but thank god for nuclear winter.”
Obviously, yes. That’s the only guarantee that nations have not to be fucked with.
If they get used it is obviously really going to be a bad time for all but one thing in their favour is that the prevailing wind goes from west to east.
Everyone in this thread is talking like they could. Even if the country wasn’t mired in a war of attrition, the process of building it takes time, expertise, money, and materials. They only have some of those. And not any money.
It would take them only a few months. Ukraine is filled with Soviet nuclear technology and Soviet nuclear engineers. They have nuclear reactors. Ukraine is richer than North Korea, and they have their own uranium mines. North Korea spent a couple billion on their nukes, but Ukraine’s military budget is $82B a year, so they could easily surpass North Korea.
Geopolitics experts agree that Ukraine could build a nuke if they wanted to. The issue is that the west definitely would not want to see a world where countries threatened by Russia turn to nuclear proliferation.
Here’s a video from a Danish military analyst talking about the decisions that have to be made on how to secure Ukraine after the war:
It’s important to note, Ukraine is willing to freeze the front line now in return for security guarantees. But If the US or the EU don’t step up to end the war soon, Ukrainian nuclear engineers will.
That was an interesting watch, but he doesn’t put a clear timeline on how long it would take. I found this article that notes that:
The Prydniprovsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kamianske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast processed uranium ore for the Soviet nuclear program, preparing yellowcake, an intermediate step in the processing of uranium ore.
It goes on to interview a couple of engineer about what they could be expected to produce, by when, and with what level of discresion:
Robert Kelley, an engineer with over 35 years of experience in the U.S. Department of Energy’s nuclear weapons complex, said that it would be possible for Ukraine to create a primitive uranium fission bomb within five years.
“It’s a fairly simple thing to do in the 21st century,” he told the Kyiv Independent.
It would be much more difficult for Ukraine to build a plutonium fission bomb, and it would be harder to hide, Kelley argued. It would take five to 10 years to build a plutonium reactor, he added.
In contrast with a fission bomb, a “hydrogen bomb would be incredibly complicated,” Kelley said. “No way in the world would (Ukraine) be able to create it,” he added.
Kelley also said that Ukraine might be able to create a crude nucleardevice without assistance from other countries. For a more complex nuclear weapon, it would have to buy technology abroad, he added.
A Russian nuclear expert and a Ukrainian nuclear expert both confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine is capable of producing a nuclear bomb, adding that it would likely take years. The Russian expert was speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, and the Ukrainian expert was not authorized to talk to the press about the issue.
“Ukraine would certainly have the knowhow and resources to become a nuclear weapons state if it made the political decision to do so,” Lavikainen said. “The technology required is not out of reach for many countries, and certainly not for Ukraine since it housed crucial elements of the Soviet nuclear weapons complex when it was still part of the USSR.”
“Ukraine could develop both nuclear warheads and carrier vehicles since it possesses the necessary military industry, uranium deposits, and nuclearenergy sector,” Lavikainen continued.
Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, was more cautious, saying that creating a nuclear bomb “is not impossible” for Ukraine. But, it “will take years, a lot of money, and most likely external support, at least on the equipment side.”
“Ukraine does not have the industrial capacity to manufacture and maintain a nuclear arsenal; it does not have fissile materials, enrichment capacity, plutonium production, most of the elements that go into a nuclear weapon capability,” he added.
Liviu Horovitz, a nuclear deterrence specialist at theGerman Institute for International and Security Affairs, also said that Ukraine faces challenges if it decides to create a nuclear bomb.
“Ukraine surely has the scientific prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program,” but “acquiring the necessary fissile materials is neither cheap nor fast nor very easy to do in secret,” he added.
The nuclear weapons expert who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the most primitive nuclear bomb program focused on uranium centrifuges could cost around $100 million. A plutonium bomb program would cost around $1 billion, he added.
There’s a really easy way for them to get hydrogen bombs, actually: we give them some B61s.
And no, that’s not a joke.
or just let them join nato instead of proliferating?
You think that’s a realistic scenario at this point? That’ll never happen. The US is going to leave NATO.
Good detail in that article. With regard to plutonium, Sweden had a plutonium breeding reactor disguised as a civilian power plant called Ågestaverket. I think that Ukraine would be able to use an existing reactor for this, or retrofit it. But yeah, any Ukrainian nuclear program would obviously become a huge target by the Russian military, and potentially other nuclear states. Ideally these installations would be underground like Ågestaverket was. Even more ideal would be military guarantees from NATO.
I don’t know anything about the laws limiting transfer of fissile material and may violate issues with NATO membership. I’m not seeing the upside for Sweden to do any of this.
And from a quick search makes it sound like decommissioning of Ågestaverket began in 2020 and should be done in 2025. So the plant would need to be, essentially, rebuilt.
Next, the nuclear program was shut down in 1961 because they didn’t have any Pu-240 to refine into Pu-247. Finally, when the program did exist, they had to get their heavy water from Norway. Heavy water allows them to use yellow cake directly for fissile material, but they still use light water but need an enrichment program. So, technically it’s a long way still.
It’s not confirmed publicly, but Sweden likely ended their nuclear weapons program in the 60s or 70s after pressure from the US. They finally decommissioned Ågestaverket in 2020, though they kept the facility open until then, presumably as a fallback option. Sweden has uranium deposits, so it would have been possible to build nuclear weapons during the Cold War if needed.
Now with NATO membership, they have instead imported American nuclear weapons to keep on Swedish soil. Not sure what will happen with their Swedish-American SOFA with Trump, it’s possible that Sweden will fall back on British and French nukes.
But yeah, I mentioned Ågestaverket, since its an example of a civilian reactor that was used for nuclear weapons, something that Ukraine could potentially do as well if the decision came to proliferate.
They could eventually spin it up, but would take longer than the months you first mention. Technical and material issues exist between yellow cake and weapons grade fissile material that the Ukrainian may not have access to (heavy water or plutonium). Even if they do, transforming their current civilian system would take several years optimistically.
Ultimately, that’s my biggest issue is time. It’s not months but years.
CANDU-like or RBMK-like design could work for this purpose, but i have doubts about VVERs that they have
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Steal it from the Libyans
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Build Delorean
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???
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Profit?Win War?
It’s all about that flux capacitor.
Go back in time and stop them from selling their original nuclear arsenal
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Sadly, they don’t have enough time to build a defense. Trump is going to put them out for slaughter.
Numerous other entities are at high risk in the immediate future, eg: Palestinians, Taiwan, Japanese islands… etc.
Trump and Repugnants are not just the end of the U.S., but, also the World as we know it.
I wish y’all the best and I apologize for the ensuing insanity.
You’re absolutely correct and I hate it. Good luck with the horrors ahead.
Do it. Promises from super powers are worthless. Only power itself matters. And all the other countries are aware of it too now.
Yeah, countries will prioritize self preservation and will gladly let even their allies get destroyed to survive. Can’t trust anyone but themselves. Everyone else is just posturing when it is convenient for them.
wow Putin’s bitch stopping aid to Ukraine? never could’ve seen this coming.
no kidding though, it took a while but Russia finally did it. they are the superpower now. good news, Europe!
Obviously. Instead of building one themselves though, they should probably buy it from France or the UK, or team up with Germany/Japan/South Korea on a joint program. Since their future looks unreliable too.
Fuck yeah, and I hope they’ve been doing it in secret for a while now.
Idk how easy it easy to just build a nuke… I feel like the long range missile is the hard part, right? The actual nuclear part isn’t quite so complex. Maybe I’m wrong.
They have a lot of the Soviet weapons design bureaus. Not sure how many of the original designers are still around. The tricky bit will be refining enough uranium or plutonium in a war zone.
He said they could make a bomb in a couple weeks if needed. No specifics on delivery or quality.
Edit: sounds like kyiv is denying the claim made by some insider. So guess this isn’t likely true.
Only Usamericans can think that nuclear weapons are a serious option to use.
He’s giving better nukes to NK in exchange for support, and there’s Intel he’s giving some to Iran as well.
He won’t stop until he is stopped, we should have learned that by now.
I was talking about the act of using it.
You must learn to distinguish between a threat and an act.
Then let’s threaten to nuke moscow tomorrow if he doesn’t immediately withdraw.
We’ll make it a really intense threat too, take all our missiles to defcon 1, deploy all our forces, have squadrons of f-22s and f-35s surrounding Ukraine and obviously tail all their borei.
“It’s just a threat, bro!”
Well, yes, every chess player and every really powerful man knows that the threat is stronger than the act.
Unfortunately, yours cannot be taken seriously.
Because?
This is the whole russian ethos, you must give them everything they want, because they don’t care.
It’s like the idiot who threatens to eat his own shit, and then does it.
We get that they have less respect for themselves and peace, but we learned a long time ago that giving in to those people doesn’t win peace, only more war, because you’re rewarding their behavior.
It is an absolutely credible threat that we could wipe out the entire Russian armed forces with a fraction of our power, and they know that.
You honestly think they pushed so hard to get Trump in power for no reason? We are the only thing holding them back.
Because?
Because you are not the world class strategist that you seem to think you are LOL. But Putin is.
Because my country is populated by worthless inbred trash that fall for something so simple as “Hey! Look over there!”
MAD doctrine. And it works it seems.
Russia and North Korea.
Depends what you mean by “use”.
The Americans are the only ones to have used them in terms of destroying enemy assets (and sadly in that case it was used against civilians). But as a deterrent it’s been used by a LOT of countries all around the world and is still being used for that purpose right now.
An argument could be made the Cold War could have been an all out world war if it weren’t for nukes, with the short peace after WW2 be considered just a break and not the end.
I hope nukes won’t be used, but Ukraine is in trouble and if they are backed into a corner and facing destruction who knows what they will do. Same could apply to Iran before long, if they have the ability to get nukes somehow, it might be their only hope. Just please let it be as a deterrent and not actual nuclear war.
Even if they have the ability to build one, and do so without Russia turning the facility where they’re building it into rubble with hypersonic missiles, they would need dozens to have full MAD type protection.
Does Ukraine even have a missile system capable of carrying that kind of payload as far as Moscow?
Maybe not anymore, but they had a few orbital rockets:
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zenit_(rocket_family)
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnepr_(rocket)
They definitely had the talent to do so, but realistically they couldn’t build one today :(
I thought politics was banned
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Take the L bud
Oh, you were taking this seriously?
I’m just fuckin’ with you, dude.
claps great recovery!
US politics is temporarily not allowed as a topic. This question appears to be about Ukrainian nuclear defense capabilities, which would not qualify as US politics.
It will surely help significantly preventing a tactical nuclear strike from russia, though it won’t end the war. It is an absolute last resort trigger. Ukraine will be annihilated after they use it (Russia has way more nuklear weapons).
So somewhat good for them and OK to do so, though no solution and no substitution for western military aid.
The reluctance to authorize long range missile strikes into Russia is based on the fear of nuclear strikes on the US/authorizers. The war was always meant to keep oil prices high and trickle through weapon sales until the last Ukrainian.
Yep.
The US won’t be there for them anymore once trump takes the reins.
Ukraine, and potentially anyone in NATO as well, will have to fend for themselves.
Nuclear programs need a lot more leadtime than that, that’s why if Biden had balls he’d give them some of ours before it’s too late
Yes. Yes. Yes. DO IT NOW! Buy the equipment and technology from whoever they can. Even if they do it illegally. Countries that do not have nukes are subjects to those that do.
Buy the technology? They built the nukes of the past. Pretty sure they can just dust off some old plans.
