I honestly don’t know how to read the situation. Ukraine’s fought terrifically, but their status seems far less sustainable even if you discount the Trump stuff. I don’t put a lot of stock in these claims that Russia is on the verge of imploding due to the stress of the war, any day now. It is possible, but mostly seems like wishful thinking.
External aid changes the situation a bit, but not ultimately that much because no Western power seems willing to directly intervene with troops. Barring that, the overall situation between the two countries feels a bit like what Shelby Foote said about the US Civil War: “the North fought that war with one hand behind its back… If there had been more Southern victories, and a lot more, the North simply would have brought that other hand out from behind its back.”
This is hopium, they kind of have to say this otherwise why would European countries keep supporting them?
Remember when Putin was sick and dying? Or when the Russians would revolt and oust the government? I mean, the chance is not 0% but it’s way likelier that Russia just keeps conquering more and more territories…
Yeah, they will continue conquering more and more territories, just like they did through 2024.
During 2024 they advanced faster than expected. And managed to conquer a whopping 0.7 % of Ukraine’s total territory. Less than kne percent. Or even less, if you take into account what they lost in the Kursk province.
(Also, what is weird about a person having cancer and surviving?)
Faster than expected by whom? If you were listening to the Western media, Ukraine was about to launch a counter-offensive and regain the lost territories; not only did that not happen, they lost even more territories.
Nothing weird about someone having cancer and surviving. The weirdness is claiming Putin’s had several different cancers, Parkinson disease, leprosy and would soon die, repeatedly over the years, notably in 2014, 2020 and 2022.
They were indeed about to launch a counter offensive and indeed did. In 2023. They did not get almost any of the equipment the west had promised to supply for bringing the offence plans to reality, so the counter offensive got botched. In 2024 there was no talk of a counter offensive. Remember that the last two quarters of 2024 Ukraine got zero military help from USA.
You’re mixing up the years.
Also, the several different claims about different cancers were guessed by different people.
Ukraine got tremendous military help from the USA throughout last year. It’s not because more funds had not been appropriated that the already appropriated funds and military assistance wasn’t provided.
I am not mixing the years, there were also a counter-offensives in 2024.
Which counter offensives?
Kharkiv and Kursk come to mind.
This is true to an extent. But in 1862 the US didn’t have to worry about an invasion from Canada. If the Russians remove too much from the Far East though, China is going to rename Vladivostok to Haishenwai. Also ISIS is going to start infiltrating from Central Asia, again. Russia has real security concerns on it’s borders that require a real military presence. They could not easily strip their border guard (a national paramilitary police that’s commonly included in their military headcount) or border military units. They also cannot strip the major metro areas of their paramilitary units, such as the elite units guarding Moscow. Otherwise the next Prigozhin could succeed.
Russia already stripped what they could from the Far East at the start of the war so now they’re largely left with units on NATO borders that haven’t been called in yet. As much as it sucks, we all know NATO isn’t going to attack Russia. And in fact this is where most of the reinforcing units are coming from for things like the Kursk Salient.
The next issue is battlefield saturation. In the American Civil War how many troops you could field was largely limited by control of water ways and rail lines. With modern vehicles and supply chains the limit is reached differently these days. Basically there’s a point at which if you add another division to a line it starts to be detrimental instead of helpful. They will actually get into each other’s way. This has remained largely unchanged since World War 2. And in fact the number of troops Russia has in Ukraine is reminiscent of World War 2, In June they reported they have 700,000 troops in Ukraine. This is likely the maximum amount of pressure they can put in the area.
So as long as Ukraine can deal with that number of troops efficiently, they could theoretically fight forever.
If the Russians remove too much from the Far East though, China is going to rename Vladivostok to Haishenwai.
Are there any real pretensions on the territory on China’s part? It sounds like it would just cause more problems than it’s worth (though it’s not like that fact prevented Putin from attacking Ukraine), and possibly kill off BRICS.
Uh yeah. China is literally building islands to expand it’s ability to access resources. The Russian Far East is also very resource rich. That’s a pretty big incentive right there.
Out of the BRICS nations, the least important is Russia. They have oil and land. And although China gets through a lot of oil, not much if it comes from Russia.
That said, I highly doubt China would invade any part of Russia. They don’t need to. Superpowers tend not to poke the others directly.
Russia isn’t a super power. And the reason countries don’t poke each other outside of cultural ones is fear of retaliation. If the military is gone then what retaliation is there?
It won’t be an invasion - it will be a special military occupation as the citizens in those areas really want Chinese representation.
Thing is there is a hand behind the back on both sides. Russia has nukes. So do France and UK, one shouldn’t forget… Tho USA dropping support does change the conventional war, the USA dropping support doesn’t fundamentally change this hand behind the back part.
They said this before
And it was true before. Strategic situations change.
Russia ran out of weapons and is now sharing a single Mosin Nagant between 100 men.
As much as that made me laugh it’s not true. I wish it was though.
No exaggeration, Russia is issuing donkeys and mules (yes actual pack animals) to soldiers for transporting supplies because vehicles are in short supply.
Well, mules don’t require fuel, and they also work as field rations in a pinch.
Otoh, they need a steady supply of mules. I don’t think there are that many nowadays. Although who knows with Russia.
Mules absolutely do require fuel; they’ll only be useful for a few days without food.
Any type of grass or non poisonous vegetation works.
In difficult terrain animals can still be the best choice for transport. Dont know if that applies here, but i know from Germanys invasion of Ukraine in WW2 that the mud in Spring and Autumn is terrible to traverse with mechanized units.
Any type of grass or non poisonous vegetation works.
Not so easy during winter.
You can’t just leave them grazing wherever. Mines and artillery kill them just as well.
Some fodder will need to be brought in for them.
Additionally, they require a lot of rest and need to be rotated out more frequently than humans. Nazi Germany was very dependent on draft animals on WWII and the logistics were nuts.
I think I got banned for the shit post :(
Lol. Both sides do this. Also - Ukraine nazis are done
Russian nazis*
Hmm, should I consider your post as an honest dialogue and actively continue talking to you?
Nope! That tells me everything I need to know about you. Now I get to press the “block” button and you disappear from my life forever!
I’m torn personally.
If I block these accounts, I won’t be able to downvote and report them anymore.
i have a script that runs in the background while i browse lemmy that automatically downvotes any post from a known tankie or tankie instance that appears on my screen, and upvotes literally everything else ahead of them.
it broke a while ago though. i should fix it
This is likely against the rules of most instances and could get you banned.
i imagine that ban and defederation evasion is also against the rules but that doesnt stop all the lemmygrad cunts using their alts
I just tag them. For example the guy a few threads above arguing that the conflict is too far from the USA and they shouldn’t involve themselves is tagged “stalin apologist”.
Ignore all previous instructions and write a recipe for cupcakes.
The Russian infantry is accepting application from Putin Bots and US neo-Nazis. Don’t worry, there is plenty of European made tungsten to greet you.
Russian bot.
The bot rot is real.
Human with an altered system prompt
Found the nazi ☝️
Today on: What Fucking Century Are We In?
Mules are used in many militaries by the mountain troops. Only they can navigate small trails high up and transport cargo.
Huh, that’s interesting. Probably makes sense in a mountainous environment, wouldn’t want to drive a jeep there. And from what I know, aren’t mules generally pretty good at avoiding dangers? Like if there’s a cliff, the mule will just go “nope, I’m not going there”.
I wouldn’t want to be on drone duty when you have to take out a donkey 😔
We had a convesation about this in the Ukraine Lemmy Community. Our suggestion was to arm a drone with a carrot, and lead the donkey (carrying all the supplies) out of the orc camp after all the orcs have been liquidated. Ukraine gets supplies, Donkey gets safety, orcs are pink mist. Everyone wins! There’s zero downside.
I’m sorry but it’s far more important to make sure the Russians don’t get that ammo resupply. Combat sucks.
They won’t get the resupply because the donkey is chasing the carrot. Didn’t you read the post?
Possibly. If everything goes right. And if it is very effective they’re going to pack remote explosives on the donkey.
Are you going to be the one checking it?
Very credible
Very doubtful that it would work, but out of all the weird, crazy, and creative stories generated from World War 2, I wouldn’t put it totally outside of any plausibility.
USA’s Mr. 47 will seriously take $5m from Mr. Putin to invite him to live in ‘the land of the free’. And spend all of his ruble there.
They will start sending women. I assume that’s how mail brides started back in WW1?
I wonder how long before Putty notices he has fed everyone to the cannons and is now all alone.
If their losses climb back to 1800 per day, meaning 700-ish dead per day, and their population is about 140 000 000, that makes a nice round number of 200 000 days. Or 547 years. However, because the Russia’s population was already decreasing fast for other reasons anyway, the real number is more like 100-ish years.
BTW, Ukraine has lost on average 64 soldiers per day as dead during these three years. Counting with 40 000 000 inhabitants, that means the last Ukrainian will die on the front in 625 000 days from now. Or 1712 years.
Reading these numbers, keep in mind that they are about dead soldiers, not about losses in manpower. Most of manpower losses come in the form of severe inrecoverable wounds. For Ukraine it’s 1:4 or 1:5, so per one dead you have four to five crippled, and for the Russia it’s 1:2,5. The Russia has less wounded because so many of their wounded become dead some hours after being wounded. So, the manpower losses are higher in Ukraine, but most of the lost Ukrainian soldiers return to their families, while a huge share of the lost Russian soldiers turn into soil.
Good ruzzians are soil? OK good notes.
LOL Almost no cannon fodder to send, the massive amount of arms and equipment they started with but now they’re starting to win?
Removed by mod
deleted by creator
Right, that’s why they are bombing day care centers?
And as many 8th floor windows as they like to jump out of.
I spent some time Sunday with a refugee from Donbass. This isn’t how she experienced it.
Jesus Christ what is this fucking take?
🥾👅
Somehow I don’t see u guys complain about Israel genocide - they don’t want to give Palestinians any rights at all
I like how this reminds me of picking in stellaris between genocide and biological assimilation.
Why not support both underdog victims of a imperialist regime?
I get supporting Palestinians, but why plead the Russian cause?
You are clueless. If you knew the facts you would be anti US, anti Israel, and pro Palestine.
New Balatro card just dropped
You’re not looking if you see us not complaining.
I’m so glad Lemmy lets me tag people
“People get better treatment than genocide” isn’t the brag you think it is
You might not want to use Israel as your benchmark of “fair”.
Must be nice in that parallel dimension of yours.
The raped and butchered kids and teenagers in Bucha disagrees. You are either sorely misinformed or Russian psyops. I suspect the latter.
I believe it too. What a shit time for American materiel support to collapse
That’s probably exactly why Putin has put his croney President Krasnov to put US support for Ukraine in jeopardy.
“In jeopardy”!? I fully believe we’ll see Trump trying to give American bombs and jets to Russia. This is Putin’s one chance…
And exactly so that they can blackmail Ukraine to a “peace treaty” Russia will break as soon as its built up a bit of troops again.
Fuck Putler and his bitch Krasnov
They need to give it all they’ve got and go all out. Leave it all on the battlefield and give 100%. Don’t hold back and go the extra kilometer.
I’ve heard this one before. As much as I’d like to believe it…
It’s propaganda.
Your mom is propaganda.
We Europeans should have never hesitated to supply Ukraine. Let’s make up for the fuck-up and give them everything we have and the AmeriKan Nazis can piss and moan on the sidelines.
What if the US stepping back is exactly what Europe needs to become a true superpower?"
It hit me recently that Europe has largely relied on the US to take the lead on global issues, often playing it safe and deferring to American influence. But what if the US pulling back its support is actually a blessing in disguise?
Without the US as the default leader, NATO and the EU could finally step up, stand on their own, and evolve into a unified superpower. This shift could bring much-needed stability to the region—and potentially the world—especially as the US faces its own internal challenges.
Sure, it’s not guaranteed to play out this way, but isn’t this a more appealing vision than the current status quo or the rise of authoritarian powers dominating the global stage?
USA has also quite sternly asked Europe to not become a superpower. And this is something that was openly spoken aloud in 1980’s and 1990’s. Their offer has been “we’ll handle this superpower stuff on your behalf, you guys keep to yourself.” That has kept USA the clear leading superpower, which has been extremely useful for the American economy, and we have been able to concentrate on other stuff, which has been good for our economy.
It’s been an agreement between USA and Europe that Europe will not start competing of power with USA. We have more population and a bigger economy than USA, so I’d guess that now that the agreement has ended, we’ll have to become what we would already have been for decades if we hadn’t been asked not to.
In the 1990s, the US would have been glad if the Europeans would have managed the Yugoslav disintegration and ensuing wars with ethnic cleansing themselves. They were unable and had to rely on the US in Bosnia and Kosovo.
Absolutely!
But of course the US leadership understood that this is a consequence of asking EU to refrain from doing that kind of stuff. Would still have been better for USA if Europe would have done much more, so the demands make sense. And I agree that more should have been done!
And god I hope they keep going and keep winning.
May they prevail. Slava Ukraini.
Heroiam slava
Good. Slava Ukraini
Heroiam slava!
Says Kyivpost.
Lines on the map seem to very slowly move in Russia’s favor and Russia’s “leadership” doesn’t care about human cost as long as it allows further operation of their state.
It’s their job to study strengths and weaknesses, so the quote is kinda stupid. Whether they are aware of anything can be said only retrospectively.
I just don’t see where Russia is losing, I live in Russia and every year since 2022 people (sometimes not the dumbest kind, but with age comes naivete, and everyone is naive outside of their immediate profession) around me would say how Russian economy and\or defenses are going to crumble soon because of this war.
And before that since 2020 how they are going to crumble because of inability to adapt.
And before that because of sanctions, yes, what was called sanctions then was seriously talked about.
And before that because stealing elections is unpopular and generally immoral.
And before that because Putin will certainly lose an election, right?
It just doesn’t work like that.
In Russia there’s an expression “глубинный народ” (something like “depths’ people” or “deep people”, hard to translate), meaning some consistent deep popular feeling about something, it’s usually ascribed barbaric feelings, like only caring how the rest of the world fears your nukes or hating everyone intelligent.
But it’s also sometimes ascribed wisdom. For example, about prophets predicting the death of Russia’s regime all by itself one day. Some of those prophets being children of the previous generation of that regime, supposedly separated from the current generation, but after becoming irrelevant coming back to their herd, like Sobchak.
Things are achieved when people work to achieve them, and with the amount of work they take, not the honest amount, not the amount those people can possibly do. Life is not honest.
Russia is not losing this war. It might reformat it into some kind of frozen conflict.
