With all the talk of tariffs, I’ve seen more or less this argument:
“Once the tariffs go in place, companies will start manufacturing in the USA and that’s good thing.”
However, when I think about being able to manufacture something like a laptop computer, or a car, these are both operations that require a lot of things:
- the input components to build the thing
- skilled labor that can manufacture the thing
- supply-chains that are in place from initial build all the way to retail
The premise seems to be: “OK, tariffs go in, someone INSTANTLY sets up a company that manufactures X, then USA wins”.
However, for someone to want to take the “bet” on setting up a really expensive factory, they’d have to believe that the tariff will be in place a long time, because if it is NOT… then they have made a terrible investment and the new factory will be instantly non-viable.
Am I crazy? Am I missing something? I understand that it would be great if we had domestic manufacturing but it seems like the people that are behind tariffs think you just snap your fingers and there is a factory cranking out laptops, when in my understanding this is a process that requires a huge amount of money and time.
My thinking is that the amount of people / companies in the USA that have enough capital to start up a manufacturing company like this want to make sure it’s a relatively safe bet before pulling the trigger, and if past tariff behavior from Mr. Trump is any indication, we can’t count on these tariffs being present for a long time.
I don’t get it. Why would anyone be forced to sell their assets? Do they invest with money they actually need? They shouldn’t. Just wait out the storm.
Two things:
People see because they see the markets going down and want to get out before it hits bottom.
The bigger issue, though, is that a hell of a lot of people will lose their jobs and have no money. Remember the Great Recession? When the job market is that shitty and you lose your job, there aren’t other ones available. No job means no income. You can apply for unemployment insurance, but that only covers a fraction of the income from your last job. So people can’t afford to pay their bills. When you can’t afford utilities, rent, gas, etc, but you have a 401k sitting there, it becomes the only option to pull money out of that. It’s a super shitty decision to have to make, but when it’s a question of losing your home or sacrificing your retirement, short-term material needs win out.
That would be after their emergency funds run out, which should be at least a year in. But yeah, when it lasts many years…