Polls are legitimate data on the sentiments of voters. However, they are prone to various error, and when combined with the tendency of partisans to trumpet polls that favor their narrative and dismiss or ignore those that don’t, this can build a misleading view of what’s happening.
This is just one poll, so while it is interesting and suggests a tightening race, it’s probably an outlier. So I think my prior is still that Cuomo is heavily favored, but we won’t know for sure until the results are counted.
So trust the polls but understand that they are not prophecies, only one clue among many as to what is really going to happen.
Agreed, didn’t mean to question the legitimacy or integrity on whomever put together this poll, it’s just that the average person does not understand the polls and puts too much weight into their relevancy. For us voters, polls have very little value (other than keeping the election top of mind). For the campaigns and the candidates, the polls can sway how they get their messaging out, but when the media reports on how well a candidate is doing in the polls, it’s really just to fill time and get clicks. At best, it may encourage people whose candidate is not doing well to get the word out, but at worst, it can result in people sitting out the election because they think their candidate is a shoe in.
I figured that may not have been your intention, just wanted to voice this because I’ve seen an increasing number of politically illiterate or dishonest people arguing that polls are fabricated and should be ignored, or similar nonsense.
Polls are legitimate data on the sentiments of voters. However, they are prone to various error, and when combined with the tendency of partisans to trumpet polls that favor their narrative and dismiss or ignore those that don’t, this can build a misleading view of what’s happening.
This is just one poll, so while it is interesting and suggests a tightening race, it’s probably an outlier. So I think my prior is still that Cuomo is heavily favored, but we won’t know for sure until the results are counted.
So trust the polls but understand that they are not prophecies, only one clue among many as to what is really going to happen.
Agreed, didn’t mean to question the legitimacy or integrity on whomever put together this poll, it’s just that the average person does not understand the polls and puts too much weight into their relevancy. For us voters, polls have very little value (other than keeping the election top of mind). For the campaigns and the candidates, the polls can sway how they get their messaging out, but when the media reports on how well a candidate is doing in the polls, it’s really just to fill time and get clicks. At best, it may encourage people whose candidate is not doing well to get the word out, but at worst, it can result in people sitting out the election because they think their candidate is a shoe in.
I figured that may not have been your intention, just wanted to voice this because I’ve seen an increasing number of politically illiterate or dishonest people arguing that polls are fabricated and should be ignored, or similar nonsense.