The chances that a real Elon party signifigantly stealing votes from the Republicans to the point it causes an actual vote split is basically nil. The voter base is stupid, but not so stupid to hand a brand new party anything out of the gate.

Now, controlled opposition, is a foundation of the farce that is Russian democracy, and both DT and Elon are staunch admirers of Putin’s system where its a mob masquerading as a government with total control