What I’m really curious is how far the bubble bursting will spread beyond the US, as America seems to be the nation which, by far, went more all-in on this, plus, ironically, Trump’s aggressive and chaotic trade policy has pushed other nations to try and isolate themselves from dependency on the US.
Also the weakenning of the Reserve Currency status of the USD (which was already happening and has been accelerated by Trump’s actions) also reduces that as a pathway for transmission of any Economic Collapse in the US - the USD value crashing is less bad for other nations the smaller their reserves in USD and USD-denominated assets are.
This will almost certainly be an Earth-Shattering Kaboom in the US, but might just be Really Bad for the rest of the World, plus it will probably be worse the closer a nation is to the US as a partner, so there might be interesting results in terms of for example Canada not being quite as badly hit now than they would be a year before whilst for the UK it will be the other way around.
Everything is so interlocked it will fuck things up everywhere. The sub-prime crisis was sparked by American companies packaging up American mortgages to sell as assets, but it still was a global crisis.
Oh yeah, I think the 2008 Crash proved it’s not a question of if an Economic Collapse in the US will harm the rest, it’s a question of how much.
I mean, last time around Landesbanken in Germany were going down because of buying CDO-squared derivatives backed by US Realestate Assets and plenty of large banks in Europe had to be saved because of similar malinvestements or simply their counterparties on the derivatives which were supposed to offset certain risks were other financial instituations which went bankrupt.
It’s when the tide goes down that we see how many were swimming whilst wearing no shorts, and like in the US most Central Banks around the World never fully rolled-back the “temporary” ultra low interest rates thus having far less “dry powder” this time around to soften the Economic blow so this crash might very well be even worse than the last one, even with reduced financial interconnectivity between countries.
I expect that, once again, we will all be living the curse of “interesting times”.
It’s gonna at least fuck over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and Softbank which has been lighting money on fire so that the smoke pleases the AI gods.
What I’m really curious is how far the bubble bursting will spread beyond the US, as America seems to be the nation which, by far, went more all-in on this, plus, ironically, Trump’s aggressive and chaotic trade policy has pushed other nations to try and isolate themselves from dependency on the US.
Also the weakenning of the Reserve Currency status of the USD (which was already happening and has been accelerated by Trump’s actions) also reduces that as a pathway for transmission of any Economic Collapse in the US - the USD value crashing is less bad for other nations the smaller their reserves in USD and USD-denominated assets are.
This will almost certainly be an Earth-Shattering Kaboom in the US, but might just be Really Bad for the rest of the World, plus it will probably be worse the closer a nation is to the US as a partner, so there might be interesting results in terms of for example Canada not being quite as badly hit now than they would be a year before whilst for the UK it will be the other way around.
Everything is so interlocked it will fuck things up everywhere. The sub-prime crisis was sparked by American companies packaging up American mortgages to sell as assets, but it still was a global crisis.
Oh yeah, I think the 2008 Crash proved it’s not a question of if an Economic Collapse in the US will harm the rest, it’s a question of how much.
I mean, last time around Landesbanken in Germany were going down because of buying CDO-squared derivatives backed by US Realestate Assets and plenty of large banks in Europe had to be saved because of similar malinvestements or simply their counterparties on the derivatives which were supposed to offset certain risks were other financial instituations which went bankrupt.
It’s when the tide goes down that we see how many were swimming whilst wearing no shorts, and like in the US most Central Banks around the World never fully rolled-back the “temporary” ultra low interest rates thus having far less “dry powder” this time around to soften the Economic blow so this crash might very well be even worse than the last one, even with reduced financial interconnectivity between countries.
I expect that, once again, we will all be living the curse of “interesting times”.
It’s gonna at least fuck over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and Softbank which has been lighting money on fire so that the smoke pleases the AI gods.