• nymnympseudonym@piefed.social
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    21 hours ago

    Quantitative os informative. Are you looking at M3? Default rates? Comparing to prior economic situations?

    All I see is like, your opinion, man

    • EightBitBlood@lemmy.world
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      20 hours ago

      Comparing to prior economic situations?

      YES. I just did that.

      Default rates?

      https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

      Sure. Those are pretty bad right now too:

      The average risk of default for US public companies reached a post-global financial crisis high of 9.2% at the end of 2024 and is predicted to remain elevated throughout the year, according to forecasts by Moody’s Asset Management Research team.

      Business default rates are now as high as they were in 2008 post crisis.

      M3 and defaults are what you see change when the crash is happening by the way, not before. But when it does keep crashing, I sincerely doubt we’ll have any real numbers until months or years later seeing as how inflated the last two jobs reports were under Trump.

      How about the Buffet index?

      One of the men who has become the richest from Wallstreet has spent the last several months and years selling most of his stocks. The Buffet index is one he invented to determine how volilalitle the market is in comparing the US stock market value to GDP.

      Basic math says getting a stock market valuation at 100% of our national GDP is impossible, but with the power of decades of defecit spending, we can definitley inflate stock prices above the maximum capacity of what our country is capable of spending in a year. Now to 217%. (The Buffet Index).

      Which is why Warren Buffet is selling large portions of his stocks: he thinks there’s problems in the markets. Especially when they’re valued at more than twice what we can make as a nation in a year. Anything above 100% is basically bullshit made up value.

      For all intents and purposes, the market is already crashing like I’ve said. It’s just a matter of how many dead cat bounces we have left.