I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
Two outcomes does not mean 50/50 chances. Maybe you were being sarcastic about that, but people actually use that reasoning in the real world all the time.