cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/52221052
Steam on Linux use has hit an all-time high! With the Steam Survey results for October 2025 coming out this evening, Steam on Linux has finally cracked the 3% threshold! A few months back Steam on Linux was close to 3% before stumbling a bit but now it’s above that elusive threshold. The only time Steam on Linux use was close to the 3% mark was when Steam on Linux initially debuted a decade ago and at that time the overall Steam user-base was much smaller than it is today. Long story short, thanks to the ongoing success of Valve’s Steam Deck and other handhelds plus Steam Play (Proton) working out so well, these October numbers are the best yet.
It took 18 month for the market share to grow from 2% to 3%.
At this rate of growth, we might hit the 5% market share before the end of the decade.
It’s the decade of Linux on the desktop!
It is also getting easier to switch to Linux. According to latest data, %90 of all games run on Linux: https://www.tomshardware.com/software/linux/nearly-90-percent-of-windows-games-now-run-on-linux-latest-data-shows-as-windows-10-dies-gaming-on-linux-is-more-viable-than-ever
50% increase per 18 months yields
0.03 * 1.5^t=0.05 =>
t = 1.26 18-month periods,
or 1.26*18/12 = 1.9 years before the market share is 5%.
That’s probably true, but the Windows 10 EoL or the “Buy European” movement likely won’t have the same momentum as in 2025.
But maybe we’ll see new linux gaming hardware, ongoing windows enshittification and better multiplayer support that will lead linux gaming out of its niche.
did the buy european thing really contribute that much to linux adoption?
I don’t know. All I was trying to say is that the growth of the linux market share is likely tied to external factors and not a strictly exponential growth.
As long as we reach it before everyone moves to Windows 11. There’s no saving those people.