And so the major recession that’s long been predicted finally begins. Right on time, IMHO - they almost always start in the latter half of January when they’ve been pushed off as much as possible like this & the investors get the year-end numbers they wanted.
As conditions deteriorate and people become more desperate, Trump (more accurately, his Heritage Foundation handlers) will use the disarray to impose martial law, and the US will decend further towards civil war.
I hope I’m wrong.
Gold has actually been going up at a good pace for a while now, especially since Trump was elected in the US - for example its price went up 65% last year in US Dollars, whilst the year before it went up 40%.
The trend has been for a while of Gold going up in price or, the way I see it, the economies behind the biggest currencies becoming more and more disfunctional. Absolutelly, the latest Trump shenennigans have accelerated the price growth for Gold in USD, yet as I see it a person like Trump getting elected as US President is itself a sympthom of a larger malaise in the US.
Gold is basically the ultimate refuge against economic uncertainty - which in turn is often the indirect result of political and societal problems, the worst the economic uncertainty the more likely it’s caused by such deeper problems - an since at least the 2008 Crash shit has jsut kept getting worse since the problems behind the 2008 Crash (over indebtness, Financial deregulation, growing inequality, a general political environment that vastly favors rent-seeking activities and so on) weren’t actually fixed, just pushed to be solved later with things like “temporary” (but never significantly reversed) ultra-low interest rates and, well, the Future has come and the system is riddled with market bubbles, parasites and barelly hidden much more widespread poverty.
Personally having been in the middle of the Finance Industry in the 2008 Crash and seeing up close how things were “solved” by governments and central banks, I’ve been holding most of my savings in Gold (by now for over 15 years) in the expectation of the unsustainable economic and even social structure finally cracking, and whilst for years I didn’t really gain much from it, for the last 3 or 4 years it really too of to insane levels (for example, Gold has had higher returns that Realestate).
Anyways, all this to say that whilst I agree that some major depression is definitelly about to happen, it has roots going back more than a decade, has been growing for a while and IMHO we can’t really use Gold prices as a precise indicator of when shit will trully hit the fan, more of an indicator of how close its getting. Certain my experience of betting on Economic Catastrophe based on the state of Broader Economic fundamentals is that, as the they say in the trade, “the Market can say irrational longer than you can stay solvent”, so the Economy might very well keep on limping for months or even years (on the other hand, the more things are stretched beyond capacity, the worst it gets when things finally break).