The stock market fell and crude oil prices skyrocketed as the U.S. and Israel launched heavy attacks on Iran. Crude and LNG shipments essentially halted through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury yields also jumped. The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 were the hardest hit. The Nasdaq fell modestly as software continued to rebound while AI chipmakers Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell Technology(MRVL) jumped on earnings. Still, all of the key indexes are below their 50-day moving averages.
The jobs report stunned with a sizable drop in nonfarm payrolls, adding to market woes on Friday.
High oil prices might be a net gain for Republican voters, if you treat Trump supporters as a homogenous blob. The places that extract fossil fuels in the US are also places that supported Trump.
Obviously, it’ll be bad for some, though.
I don’t know if it will be politically-advantageous to Trump, as if oil prices stay high, gasoline prices will reflect it, and the public is especially sensitive to those.
EDIT: Actually, if high oil prices stay for a long time, which I doubt they will, it might be a gain for environmentalists, as it drives down car use and up EV adoption. A world with relatively expensive oil is also a world that sees less carbon dioxide emissions.
This is one of the few silver linings. As a consequence of the oil crisis in the 1970s, people purchased smaller cars for decades. Only after the memory started to fade did people gradually switch to the behemoths we see today.