If gulf oil supply was still flowing, that would’ve probably made a positive difference.
But with gulf oil supply dried up, if he doesn’t win the war by blowing it all up, where’s the fuel gonna come from for fueling his army, the energy that the European economy needs to supports the war materially and financially? Or the energy fueling China’s production of the electronics and motors Ukraine uses for drone producrion.
If Russian oil production is knocked offline while the gulf’s is dead, we’re entering revolutionary economic conditions and I think the support for Ukraine under such conditions would evaporate.
So you’re saying there are two countries in Europe at war, and the defender can’t strike back in this war because of another war in middle east that the US started?
Trump only needs to lift Russian oil sanctions at this point to make it clear they’re doing everything to save Russia and doom allies.
Or, and hear me out, Trump could stop his temper tantrum he calls a war and then the Strait of Hormuz would be unblocked. Don’t make Ukraine responsible for everyone else’s mistakes.
Or alternatively, if he doesn’t knock out Russian oil quickly, the US might say, how about we end this war on your behalf as long as you keep the oil flowing. Russia is generally losing currently, but if they get enough funds from oil Ukraine could lose the war (or more likely keep it going much longer).
If they can force the question like that to the US, perhaps. But I don’t think they can do that. They would have already done so if they could instead of complain about being asked not to. They don’t seem ideologically predisposed to play hardball like Iran is. Or pehaps their material position to knock Russia’s oil prod is not as strong. Which is the other concern. If they knock a chunk of it offline, enough to trigger regime changes across Europe (through oilprice-triggered recession/depression), but not enough to win the war, then they’d be absolutely fucked and will def lose the war.
Not particularly, that would absolutely backfire if Zelensky tried that, most of why the war hasn’t spiralled seems to be that he hasn’t broken any rules of combat, and has decent relationships with most of the countries of the EU. In fact, that would probably give Trump a premise to help Russia, something he has clearly been looking for for a while.
And even then, I think the connotation between Trump and Europe’s Far right is enough to make them generally unpopular, given the far right caused the gas/oil shortages in the first place, so I double AfD, Le Pen, or Farage would gain enough leverage to parley that into power.
Ultimately, I think Ukraine needs to quickly shut down Russian oil production, as if they don’t Russia gets a foothold that makes their war last longer. It won’t be particularly popular in a lot of the EU (at least in the short term), but it’s better than giving Russia the means to continue their bullshit.
If gulf oil supply was still flowing, that would’ve probably made a positive difference.
But with gulf oil supply dried up, if he doesn’t win the war by blowing it all up, where’s the fuel gonna come from for fueling his army, the energy that the European economy needs to supports the war materially and financially? Or the energy fueling China’s production of the electronics and motors Ukraine uses for drone producrion.
If Russian oil production is knocked offline while the gulf’s is dead, we’re entering revolutionary economic conditions and I think the support for Ukraine under such conditions would evaporate.
If russia doesn’t want to have their stuff blown up, they can stop at any time by not occupying Ukraine anymore. It’s literally their choice.
So you’re saying there are two countries in Europe at war, and the defender can’t strike back in this war because of another war in middle east that the US started?
Trump only needs to lift Russian oil sanctions at this point to make it clear they’re doing everything to save Russia and doom allies.
Didn’t he already partially do that? He also appears to be letting Russia (and no one else) through the blockade to sell oil to Cuba.
Or, and hear me out, Trump could stop his temper tantrum he calls a war and then the Strait of Hormuz would be unblocked. Don’t make Ukraine responsible for everyone else’s mistakes.
Or alternatively, if he doesn’t knock out Russian oil quickly, the US might say, how about we end this war on your behalf as long as you keep the oil flowing. Russia is generally losing currently, but if they get enough funds from oil Ukraine could lose the war (or more likely keep it going much longer).
If they can force the question like that to the US, perhaps. But I don’t think they can do that. They would have already done so if they could instead of complain about being asked not to. They don’t seem ideologically predisposed to play hardball like Iran is. Or pehaps their material position to knock Russia’s oil prod is not as strong. Which is the other concern. If they knock a chunk of it offline, enough to trigger regime changes across Europe (through oilprice-triggered recession/depression), but not enough to win the war, then they’d be absolutely fucked and will def lose the war.
Not particularly, that would absolutely backfire if Zelensky tried that, most of why the war hasn’t spiralled seems to be that he hasn’t broken any rules of combat, and has decent relationships with most of the countries of the EU. In fact, that would probably give Trump a premise to help Russia, something he has clearly been looking for for a while.
And even then, I think the connotation between Trump and Europe’s Far right is enough to make them generally unpopular, given the far right caused the gas/oil shortages in the first place, so I double AfD, Le Pen, or Farage would gain enough leverage to parley that into power.
Ultimately, I think Ukraine needs to quickly shut down Russian oil production, as if they don’t Russia gets a foothold that makes their war last longer. It won’t be particularly popular in a lot of the EU (at least in the short term), but it’s better than giving Russia the means to continue their bullshit.
Russia can stop the attacks on their energy infrastructure at any time by withdrawing from Ukraine.