The last time this happened, voters didn’t credit Bill Clinton. That may be a bad omen, or a good one.
If the stock market chose presidents, Joe Biden would be a shoo-in for reelection in 2024. The market rallied this month amid growing optimism about the economy, with the S&P 500 zooming 1.9 percent Tuesday on news that the consumer price index rose only 3.2 percent in October (compared to 3.7 percent in September). Stocks rallied again Wednesday on news that the producer price index fell 0.5 percent. Commentators are no longer debating whether the economy will experience a “soft landing” (i.e., a reduction in inflation without recession). The only question now is when it will arrive. The S&P 500 seems to have decided it’s already here.
But the stock market doesn’t choose presidents. Voters do, and polls continue to show they think the economy is in terrible shape. A Financial Times–Michigan Ross Nationwide Survey conducted November 2–7 is absolutely brutal on this point.
No but it can be interpreted in the completely wrong way when you forget about the supplementary data driving the numbers you look at, as evidenced by all the treads in this post calling out that even though the stock market numbers look good that’s not really painting the whole picture of our economy. A boost in using services like online shopping delivery and what not could also signify people have significantly less time, working multiple jobs maybe to make ends meet and this is the only way to get groceries. That doesn’t mean they feel the service is great just nessacity is driving its adoption. Couple that knowledge with a low unemployment rate and those data trends can start to paint a different picture than you initially thought.
I’ll be sure to ignore those compliments we get on the services. Also fun fact, I never stated home delivery.