Now, these problems have been fairly obvious for at least a decade. Why are they only becoming acute now? Well, international economists are fond of citing Dornbusch’s Law: “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” What happened in China’s case was that the government was able to mask the problem of inadequate consumer spending for a number of years by promoting a gigantic real estate bubble. In fact, China’s real estate sector became insanely large by international standards.
I don’t understand this take. Comments like this suggest collapse happens overnight. Which means if china didn’t catastrophically collapse in the last 24 hours it means it isn’t happening at all or never.
The reality is collapse happens very slowly. There is no question that the health of the economy both in china and the rest of the world is steadily getting worse year by year.
Collapse isn’t going to happen. It’s already happening. It’s just a steady and slow march to the bottom.
Yeah, it’s a believe it when you see it thing at this point. They might stagnate out economically or have internal supply issues, but there’s a world of difference between that and actual regime instability.
Case in point: Zimbabwe is still run by largely the same group of guys that ordered the 100-trillion dollar bills made.
Your annual reminder for the past ten years that “China is about to collapse any day now”
Closely followed by, “Trump is in trouble this time” articles that we’ve been getting for the last 6 years.
Per the article:
This is a well known feature of all complex systems. How they change is “not at all, and then suddenly”.
Yet people always insist they must change slowly and steadily.
I don’t understand this take. Comments like this suggest collapse happens overnight. Which means if china didn’t catastrophically collapse in the last 24 hours it means it isn’t happening at all or never.
The reality is collapse happens very slowly. There is no question that the health of the economy both in china and the rest of the world is steadily getting worse year by year.
Collapse isn’t going to happen. It’s already happening. It’s just a steady and slow march to the bottom.
Yeah, it’s a believe it when you see it thing at this point. They might stagnate out economically or have internal supply issues, but there’s a world of difference between that and actual regime instability.
Case in point: Zimbabwe is still run by largely the same group of guys that ordered the 100-trillion dollar bills made.
Yep you can definitely build lots of skyscrapers, then just demolish them without any financial repercussion.