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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • He’s not going to “fail” in his second term. If anything, we should be glad his first term failed - that due to the chaos and incompetence of his administration they failed to achieve any of the horrific shit he had discussed on the campaign trail. His only legislative win was a tax cut for the wealthy.

    Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 will make sure that doesn’t happen during a second administration. They will purge the civil service and restaff with party loyalists who won’t be held up by due process or legality.

    The terrifying thing is not another Trump failure. The terrifying thing is if he and the Christian nationalists backing him succeed.









  • Unpopular opinion but the simple fact is that you’re right. Turnout reflects enthusiasm and “status quo” and “you’ll be voting against the other worse guy” simply do not turn out voters.

    I’m going to vote, I always vote, but I am deeply concerned about the Democrats’ electoral strategy. Trump promises to blow things up. He’s full of shit and his plans will make everything worse for a lot of people, including his own voters, but the promise of radical change in itself is enticing for a disaffected electorate.

    The promise of more of the same is exactly the opposite of what motivates a disaffected electorate. The sometimes-voters will stay home if they aren’t given any reason to be enthusiastic.



  • There is no truth to this. A win in Oregon does not increase or decrease the chances of a future win in Oregon. The probabilities are fully independent of one another. There is no plausible means by which the probability of a future drawing selecting a ticket held in a particular state is affected by the residences of previous winning ticket holders.

    The idea that “X just won, therefore X is on a roll and will continue to win” and “X hasn’t won in a long time, therefore X is overdue for a win and should win in the near future” are both examples of the Gambler’s Fallacy.