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Joined 3 年前
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Cake day: 2023年6月7日

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  • I can’t see a scenario where a bailout doesn’t happen but I also don’t see it being beneficial if a bailout does occur.

    While the automakers bailout boosted an industry that was on major trouble, they were able to return to profitability in the end and pay back those loans right? The whole A.I. industry has never turned a profit, so even if we bail them out, the fundamental model as it is now would just revert to a known unprofitable state.

    You could argue that you should bail out the hardware companies so you don’t cripple the chip manufacturers, and foundries, but there is no financial benefit that I can see to bail out a llm developer. If you were going that route. I would say they have to nationalize the software companies but I don’t want that being part of the government at fucking all.





  • I think you need to think about the rate at which technology has advanced in the last hundred years in general, then look at how it changed in the 10 year increments in that period then extrapolate out what has plateaued vs ramped up.

    Broadly speaking, there have been major changes but the telephone existed in 1925, so did refrigeration, powered flight, and cars.

    Medical tech is really where I think the biggest difference has been, and where I think we will continue to see major changes. If you compare our medical knowledge of diseases, cancer, and genetics today vs 1925 it seems huge (to an outsider). The difference between a computer in 1950 and today is largely scale and computer power, yeah, its improved but it still fundamentally does math in the same basic manner. Quantum computers may change that some but its still essentially math.