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Cake day: December 11th, 2024

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  • I don’t think it’ll be LLMs (which is what a lot of people jump to when you mention “AI”), they have much higher latencies than microseconds. It will be AI of some sort, but probably won’t be considered AI due to the AI effect:

    The AI effect is the discounting of the behavior of an artificial intelligence program as not “real” intelligence.

    The author Pamela McCorduck writes: “It’s part of the history of the field of artificial intelligence that every time somebody figured out how to make a computer do something—play good checkers, solve simple but relatively informal problems—there was a chorus of critics to say, ‘that’s not thinking’.”

    Researcher Rodney Brooks stated: “Every time we figure out a piece of it, it stops being magical; we say, ‘Oh, that’s just a computation.’”

    LLMs might be useful for researchers diving down a particular research/experiment rabbit hole.


  • I don’t have any useful speculation to contribute, but here’s a classic chart showing various funding levels towards that goal:

    Coming from a slashdot thread from 2012 where some fusion researchers did an AMA type thing:

    https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/12/04/11/0435231/mit-fusion-researchers-answer-your-questions

    Here’s also a recent HN thread about achieving more energy than we put in:

    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33971377

    The crucial bit is this

    Their total power draw from the grid was 300 megajoules and they got back about 3 megajoules, so don’t start celebrating yet

    The critical ELI5 message that should have been presented is that they used a laser to create some tiny amount of fusion. But we have been able to do that for a while now. The important thing is that they were then able to use the heat and pressure of the laser generated fusion to create even more fusion. A tiny amount of fusion creates even more fusion, a positive feedback loop. The secondary fusion is still small, but it is more than the tiny amount of laser generated fusion. The gain is greater than one. That’s the important message. And for the future, the important takeaway is that the next step is to take the tiny amount of laser fusion to create a small amount of fusion, and that small amount of fusion to create a medium amount of fusion. And eventually scale it up enough that you have a large amount of fusion, but controlled, and not a gigantic amount of fusion that you have in thermonuclear weapons, or the ginormous fusion of the sun.

    So it’s still really encouraging, but just a warning that headlines don’t capture the full picture. Bonus fun fact from that thread:

    Theoretical models of the Sun’s interior indicate a maximum power density, or energy production, of approximately 276.5 watts per cubic metre at the center of the core, which is about the same power density inside a compost pile.


  • IMO free will is commonly misunderstood. It’s not an absolute property, it’s a relative statement. In other words, something doesn’t “have” free will, the term is merely shorthand for “behavior that can’t be predicted”. To me, a rock doesn’t have free will because I can use relatively simple physics to predict its behavior perfectly. Other humans have much more free will because it’s much harder to predict their behavior. A bug is somewhere in the middle. To a superhuman intelligence (supercomputer, aliens, deity, take your pick), humans don’t have free will, because our behavior can be perfectly predicted.

    That squares with my opinion on QM in that even if deterministic interpretations of QM are eventually rigorously ruled out, I would still be of the opinion that if we could poke through the underlying substrate and query an intelligence there, our behavior would be perfectly predictable. Much like a video game character discovering the math behind the RNG that controls their universe. So they’re kind of orthogonal concepts, but somewhat related.




  • Sounds like a bubble, which isn’t a bad thing but not very common in the US IME. I haven’t looked at housing prices in that area, but I’m guessing they would be obscenely expensive for most people. Even where real estate is much cheaper than that, I’ve only really known a few people that have done that sort of thing and they’re all well-off.

    I’m also going to plug the community we’ve got over at !AskUSA@discuss.online, it’s great for casual US-focused questions like this.