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161·22 days agoGiven what I have read, I agree with Al Jazeera’s evaluation. Either highly outdated info and no effort to update it (colorful murals on exterior walls, regular traffic by parents --> chances of updating the designation of the object)…
…or just people who give zero f**ks, or even worse, some form of AI generating lists which people rubberstamp, Israeli style.
Most likely, unfortunately yes.
There is one “if” however. There is a production line of Patriot missiles in Germany, and I hope the German government is refusing export permits to anywhere but Ukraine.
My understanding: there was no imminent threat to the US or Israel. The strike was driven by opportunity, not threat. Ali Khamenei made a mistake, exposing himself by convening a meeting at his official residence in Tehran. US intelligence found out and informed Israel. Israel sent planes and hit the complex with 30 missiles within one minute, killing everyone who they could have negotiated with.
‘Sixty seconds, that’s all it took’: the clinical Israeli-US operation to kill Ali Khamenei
…and there seems to be no long-term plan.
If Iran does not crumble instantly, the 40-kilometer strait of Hormuz cannot be made safe for international oil traffic without a ground invasion of Iran. Which the US is not prepared for, and Israel is not capable of.
So, unless Iran has a revolution (very unlikely during war), Iran can threaten the energy supply of Asian countries and the income of Arab countries. The US and Israel can pound Iran from the air, but drones can be made in a well equipped garage.
In my book, that’s called a stalemate.
Wikipedia says 600, but I have not independently verified that.
The casualty numbers have risen - it’s already 165 people dead from this strike. :(
Re “Hamas tunnel” - there was an IRGC naval base 600 meters away.
Since the US military is unlikely to release the data, we probably cannot know if the weapon malfunctioned or the strike planner clicked on the school.
In an ideal world, if a strike planner knowingly clicks on a school, they go to prison. If they aren’t given the information to tell apart a school, their boss goes to prison. Unfortunately in the current-time US, nobody will be held accountable. :(
The Ukrainian government was bombing eastern Ukraine before the war up to 2022 leading to 3500 civilians killed, and this is Putin’s justification for invasion.
You are miserably misinformed.
Do you actually know that war in Eastern Ukraine started in 2014? Have you read the timeline?
Yes, when a land war occurs, both sides will be shelling each other.
The casualty numbers are unlikely, though, since it was a low-intensity conflict. But it was intense enough to drive 2 million people from their homes.
At some point, a ceasefire was reached, with sides agreeing to remove heavy guns and missile launchers to a distance from the line of contact. Then the ceasefire failed.
You mention “Putin’s justification for invasion”. :D :D :D
He was already invading Ukraine. He had taken Crimea in 2014 and had been trying to take Donbas ever since, with low intensity warfare.
His true grievance was that Ukrainians had a revolution in 2014, and drove out president Viktor Yanukovich, whom Putin had friendly ties with. He responded with military force.
Please, study history. Do not let propagandists twist you around a finger.
I wonder what causes you to lie, when you have information available that indicates the contrary.
Are you perhaps related to some group which Israel has attacked? Then I would understand the desperate need to support any tyrant, as long as they are against Israel.
If I were you, I would critically examine my news sources.
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War will likely continue for now, and he has nominated his successor.
However, eventually a power struggle may start (it’s not guaranteed) and then, Iranian people may get their foot between the door and force it open.
As an unrelated note, they are firing Patriots (the ones which can’t be supplied to Ukraine, because “there are too few”) by the dozen. I watched a video from Qatar and literally saw a billion worth of fireworks in 60 seconds.
Sanctions on Iran pre-date the genocide in Gaza by a long time.
Proud? How? Where? Please explain.
I know the history. It’s bitter.
Iran had extremely poor relations between government and parliament, but could have come through of that period without the UK + US organized coup.
The Shah could have been influenced and moderated, but nobody gave a damn.
The Islamic revolution was not the only possible outcome of the revolution to oust the Shah, but it was allowed to go that way. Nobody gave a damn.
So, once act of malicious interference by the UK + US, plus two acts of the international community (note: of that time) not having any damns to give.
From the article:
afirmo que al menos 100 personas
This would include soldiers and bodyguards.
If Iran was not the country it currently is, I would condemn the attack.
Iran being the country it is, all I can say is - I doubt if it brings about beneficial change. There are very few examples of regimes collapsing purely due to aerial bombardment. I can recall only one example (Libya) and it had opposition in control of some cities, ready for battle with government troops (which got bombed on their way to attack the opposition)… and not much happiness resulted from it anyway.
or abduct the president of Venezuela without murdering hundreds to thousands of civilians.
That statement needs correction because it’s false.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela
Typical topics: machine vision, scientific papers about machine vision, source code implementing various machine vision algoritms, etc.
Typical failure modes:
- advising to look for code in public files or repositories where said code does not exist, and never has
- referring to publications which do not seem to exist
- being unable to explain what caused the incorrect advise
- offering to perform tasks which the language model subsequently fails to complete
- as a really laughable case, writing code which takes arguments as input, but never uses the arguments
- contradicting oneself, confidently giving explanations, then changing them
Typical methods of asking: “can you find a scientific article explaining the use of method A”, “can you find a repository implementing algorithm B, preferably in language C”, “please locate or produce a plain language explanation of how algorithm D accomplishes step E or feature F”, “yes, please suggest which functions perform this work in this project / repository”.
Typical models used: Chat and Claude. Chat seems more overconfident, Claude admits limitations or inability more frequently, but not as frequently as I would prefer to see.
But they have both consumed an incredible amount of source material. More than I could read during a geological age or something. They just work with it like with any text, no ground truth, no perception of what is real. Their job is answering questions and if there is no good answer, they will frequently still answer something that seems probable.
“More fundamentally, AI models may not understand ‘stakes’ as humans perceive them.”
In my repeated attempts to solicit the advise of various language models for some situations which a programmer might face (e.g. being unable to read all the world’s literature of a subject), I have come to conclude that they cannot understand “truth” as humans perceive it. Today’s language models don’t fail apologizing, stepping back or admitting inability - they fail confidently bluffing.
Possibilities:
- their training material does not include enough cases of humans apologizing about being unable to solve a problem
- a bias was introduced to get them to ignore such cases, since admitting such material resulted in too frequent refusal or self-doubt
Basically, today’s models seem to be low on self-criticism and seem to have a bias towards believing in their own omniscience.
Finally, a few words about the sensibility of letting language models play this sort of a war game. It’s silly. They aren’t built for that task, and if someone would build an AI for controlling strategic escalation, they would train this AI on rather different information than a chat bot.
All I can say is that they have to find a solution, and their time is limited.
I think it’s a safe bet to say that Japanese sociologists are already studying the problem for decades.
Choosing some solutions they might propose is becoming increasingly urgent. It will most likely require adopting a different view on topics like employment and career. If a career is valued highly and having kids blocks it effectively and incurs enough expenses to set a person back in life, then people are discouraged from raising kids.
Personal opinion: this news is likely true. I will not tell anyone if this is good or bad news, as it could be both.
Most likely, the CIA has been repeating to Trump and Pentagon like a broken grammophone: “you cannot win by aerial bombardment alone”. It seems that now the CIA got authorization to make promises to Kurds, and have delivered weapons. Kurds however, most likely:
They are likely reluctant. According to the sources, they have asked for air support. The source cannot tell if support has been granted. US and Israeli strikes have certainly been above-average intense in Western Iran.
Judging by the most recent speech by Reza Pahlavi, where he addresses all ethnic minorities and regional tribes and promises extensive safeguards to their identity and culture if a new Iran should form, I would estimate that a rift exists between Pahlavi’s faction (they want an intact but democratic Iran) and the Kurdish factions (56 million Kurds are waiting for an opportunity to set up Kurdistan, 10 million of them live in Iran - this could be a condensation nucleus that starts the formation of a country). Reza Pahlavi obviously cannot promise them that, so he’s willing to promise everything else.
As a note: Kurds will not declare statehood quickly at all - they know they must keep a low profile. They know Turkey will attack them if they declare statehood, Iraq will likely attack them, Syria has recently attacked them for mere ambitions of autonomy. They won’t declare anything, but may try to carve out a highly autonomous province and see what happens in practise.
However, they will fear being betrayed again for the umpteenth time, which may reduce their eagerness to stick their head into fire.
And it won’t help the US break open the Hormuz strait, because there are no Kurds living there. They live in the western mountains. If Trump wants Hormuz, US soldiers will have to set their own feet on ground.