• 7 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • and now wants to capitalize on it.

    Ukraine is forced to capitalize on it.

    Around Iran, during 3 days, the US, Israel and Arab countries have shot off the same amount of Patriot missiles as Ukraine has consumed in 4 years. There will be a severe shortage.

    The balance of ballistic attack and defense is tilted heavily in favour of attack. For example, an Iranian “Zolfaghar” ballistic missile costs around 150 000 euros, while a Patriot PAC-3 interceptor might cost 4 000 000 euros, and typical defensive tactics involve shooting 2 per target. This means the shortage will not be improving for a long time.

    Ukraine has a dependency they cannot alleviate. About 75% of Ukraininan antiballistic defense relies on Patriot imports from the US. European production of Aster and South Korean production of KM-SAM is unlikely to have enough volume, and buying from South Korea is doubtful if the US is pulling out Patriot and THAAD deployments for sending to the Middle East. South Korea has North Korea to worry about.

    If Ukraine does not apply every lever to ensure continued supply of Patriot missiles, a time will come when Putin will be given a menu every morning - to decide which Ukrainian power plants must stop working next night.

    This is not something that Ukraine can afford. They cannot harden all power plants. They cannot rely on purchasging energy. They cannot catch all Russian launch vehicles. They have made a good attempt at attacking a factory producing Russian “Iskander” missiles. Results are not conclusive, only 1 building was hit.

    So, they will smile and offer an exchange. Then they will go back home and curse - properly. Foremost they will be cursing the utter stupidity of the orange toddler who picked an avoidable battle at the wrong time, or allowed the other war criminal to drag him into it.


  • If you don’t mind divulging, how does that stack against timber for cost at least for the time?

    It’s too expensive but practically indestructible, except in salt water. Unlike wood, it does not offer any favourable thermal properties, so you can only do unheated sheds with it. I came across a pile of it on a bankruptsy auction, which made it possible to afford its use.


  • Since the claim originates from an Iranian news agency and there are currently no photos of wreckage, I would wait for additional confirmation, but the publisher of the news is Yemeni (they are allied with Iran) so they would likely not wait.

    This is certainly possible, everything that flies can be shot down and F-15 is not the hardest of them, as some guy in Kuwait accidentally proved when dots on his radar got too confusing.


  • I recommend to find some assistance. Even one other person can help immensely at certain points.

    I have built a 2-storey shed on a metal frame alone, and it involved highly inconvenient and more than moderately dangerous stages. I would not do it again.

    I managed only because I relied heavily on industrial aluminum profiles for machine building (engineer’s Lego beams).


  • Personal opinion: this news is likely true. I will not tell anyone if this is good or bad news, as it could be both.

    Most likely, the CIA has been repeating to Trump and Pentagon like a broken grammophone: “you cannot win by aerial bombardment alone”. It seems that now the CIA got authorization to make promises to Kurds, and have delivered weapons. Kurds however, most likely:

    • remember being double-crossed in January (Turkey alerted Iran of their expedition to relieve their Iranian comrades, and the IRGC repelled them in a border clash)
    • remember being double-crossed in December (the US allowed the HTS, now called “Syrian government” to surprise and steamroll them)
    • remember being double-crossed many times before

    They are likely reluctant. According to the sources, they have asked for air support. The source cannot tell if support has been granted. US and Israeli strikes have certainly been above-average intense in Western Iran.

    Judging by the most recent speech by Reza Pahlavi, where he addresses all ethnic minorities and regional tribes and promises extensive safeguards to their identity and culture if a new Iran should form, I would estimate that a rift exists between Pahlavi’s faction (they want an intact but democratic Iran) and the Kurdish factions (56 million Kurds are waiting for an opportunity to set up Kurdistan, 10 million of them live in Iran - this could be a condensation nucleus that starts the formation of a country). Reza Pahlavi obviously cannot promise them that, so he’s willing to promise everything else.

    As a note: Kurds will not declare statehood quickly at all - they know they must keep a low profile. They know Turkey will attack them if they declare statehood, Iraq will likely attack them, Syria has recently attacked them for mere ambitions of autonomy. They won’t declare anything, but may try to carve out a highly autonomous province and see what happens in practise.

    However, they will fear being betrayed again for the umpteenth time, which may reduce their eagerness to stick their head into fire.

    And it won’t help the US break open the Hormuz strait, because there are no Kurds living there. They live in the western mountains. If Trump wants Hormuz, US soldiers will have to set their own feet on ground.





  • My understanding: there was no imminent threat to the US or Israel. The strike was driven by opportunity, not threat. Ali Khamenei made a mistake, exposing himself by convening a meeting at his official residence in Tehran. US intelligence found out and informed Israel. Israel sent planes and hit the complex with 30 missiles within one minute, killing everyone who they could have negotiated with.

    ‘Sixty seconds, that’s all it took’: the clinical Israeli-US operation to kill Ali Khamenei

    …and there seems to be no long-term plan.

    If Iran does not crumble instantly, the 40-kilometer strait of Hormuz cannot be made safe for international oil traffic without a ground invasion of Iran. Which the US is not prepared for, and Israel is not capable of.

    So, unless Iran has a revolution (very unlikely during war), Iran can threaten the energy supply of Asian countries and the income of Arab countries. The US and Israel can pound Iran from the air, but drones can be made in a well equipped garage.

    In my book, that’s called a stalemate.



  • The casualty numbers have risen - it’s already 165 people dead from this strike. :(

    Re “Hamas tunnel” - there was an IRGC naval base 600 meters away.

    Since the US military is unlikely to release the data, we probably cannot know if the weapon malfunctioned or the strike planner clicked on the school.

    In an ideal world, if a strike planner knowingly clicks on a school, they go to prison. If they aren’t given the information to tell apart a school, their boss goes to prison. Unfortunately in the current-time US, nobody will be held accountable. :(


  • The Ukrainian government was bombing eastern Ukraine before the war up to 2022 leading to 3500 civilians killed, and this is Putin’s justification for invasion.

    You are miserably misinformed.

    Do you actually know that war in Eastern Ukraine started in 2014? Have you read the timeline?

    Yes, when a land war occurs, both sides will be shelling each other.

    The casualty numbers are unlikely, though, since it was a low-intensity conflict. But it was intense enough to drive 2 million people from their homes.

    At some point, a ceasefire was reached, with sides agreeing to remove heavy guns and missile launchers to a distance from the line of contact. Then the ceasefire failed.

    You mention “Putin’s justification for invasion”. :D :D :D

    He was already invading Ukraine. He had taken Crimea in 2014 and had been trying to take Donbas ever since, with low intensity warfare.

    His true grievance was that Ukrainians had a revolution in 2014, and drove out president Viktor Yanukovich, whom Putin had friendly ties with. He responded with military force.

    Please, study history. Do not let propagandists twist you around a finger.