If the filibuster is removed, it is also possible to get through with 50+VP as tie breaker or 51. The filibuster being removed is not as unlikely as you may think since Republicans right now are getting closer and closer towards defacto removing the filibuster. There currently are narrow ways around the filibuster (reconsideration is one big one) that are supposed to have a bunch of limitations, but they are testing the waters in ignoring violations of those limitations. The senate parliamentarian is the one who makes rulings about if something violates their clauses, but their opinion can be ignored by a strict majority via the “nuclear option”

A month ago, Republicans used the nuclear option to ignore the senate parliamentarian ruling that the Congressional Review Act would not allow them to skip the filibuster to remove California’s EPA waivers (see here).

As I write this Republicans are currently trying to play another different a different trick about some of the stuff in the Big Beautiful Bill. Dems have been challenging a bunch of provisions and getting the parliamentarian to most of the time rule they are in violation of the Byrd rule. But they are also trying to challenge the whole bill as violating the Byrd rule’s limit that a bill passed via reconsecration cannot increase the deficit over a ten-year period. Republicans are playing an accounting trick to claim it doesn’t. They know the parliamentarian is unlikely to agree with them, so they are currently trying to prevent dems from even being able to ask the parliamentarian about it

Yep, and even larger can be overcome too. If you look AOC’s 2018 primary upset, she was outspent by over 10x

Insane outspending can be overcome. Obviously it makes the fight harder, but money is not everything

Because they massively outspent Zohran in the primary and still lost. Vote because you can still overcome this. They want us to give up and think we can’t. Don’t do their dirty work for them

There’s a primary for his now vacant seat this Saturday if anyone here is in that district (VA-11) and wants to avoid a repeat. Special election is in September

There are some progressives running in that primary

Vote in every primary. The establishment can’t fight as hard as they did for Cuomo everywhere. There are lot of primaries across the country that many people don’t even know are happening

For instance, there’s one for the US House seat in VA-11 (Most of Fairfax county + Fairfax City) this Saturday prior to the September special election to replace Gerry Connolly who died from cancer

Hope does not mean blind hope. It does not mean you will always win. It means knowing that you can

Always try. No matter how hopeless it seems, you always have the possibility to win a seemingly impossible fight. This a shining example of overcoming and winning big

Giving up is a guaranteed loss. That is what they want us to do. Never give in

They poured millions and million and massively outspent Zohran and still lost. Zohran had no name recognition, and was virtually a nobody in February. The establishment worked hard against him and still lost. They rolled out shameless endorsement of Cuomo after shameless endorsement (like Bill Clinton, apparently). The establishment didn’t lose for a lack of effort. This could happen anywhere next

If they ignore it, the progressives are starting to get ready to take it in the primaries themselves. There’s been an increase in young progressives running for state & local office following these results

(https://bsky.app/profile/amandalitman.bsky.social/post/3lsflzpcjlk2i)

A historically massive over performance of the polls and how the candidate (Lander) who is third on the first round is also a progressive

Few polls had Zohran winning. Even the polling that had Zohran winning had him losing the first round vote by a fair amount and only flipping to win in the 7th round. No polling had him winning the 1st round. He’s just won the first round by like 7% of the vote. He’s not far from 50% of the vote outright on round one

We won’t have the official results from the later ranked choice rounds until July 1st, but just ~60% of Lander’s #2 votes alone would push him above 50% even if all candidates below Lander went 100% Cuomo for #2. Lander cross endorsed Zohran and told his supporters to rank Zohran #2

If they get him on state charges, only the Minnesota Board of Pardons can do that. Which consists of the Governor Tim Walz (D), Chief Justice of the Minnesota Supreme Court (appointee of Walz), and Minnesota Attorney General (D)

This isn’t the first large nationwide protest of his second term and it won’t be the last. For instance, the Hands Off ones in April were number 6 on that list. They’re getting larger and there is already planning for the next nationwide ones. Or more broadly, here’s the cumulative number of protests including smaller ones too

I think you are equating those with disruptive. Peaceful doesn’t necessarily mean non-disruptive. Peaceful and disruptive protests can certainly still make people in power sweat

Strikes are peaceful and disruptive

Shutting down freeways can be peaceful and disruptive

Boycotts are peaceful and can be disruptive

Sit-ins are peaceful and can be disruptive

etc.

Not that 3.5% is necessarily an iron-clad guarantee

There were over 2000 protest locations alone. Thousands would mean that an average of 1-5 people showed up at each location which you can find plenty, plenty, plenty of photos to prove otherwise. For instance, you can find places with hundreds turning out in deep red small towns

One group’s estimate is least 11 million, which is at the 3.5% figure and they are still counting! Been rising hourly by millions as they continue to count the thousands of protest locations

The 3.5% is not necessarily the full iron clad guarantee it’s touted as, but the high turnout is encouraging. Keep the pressure up!

It’s not as much about each specific thing as much as is about the overarching story. That Trump was at a UFC event and stayed while calling the national guard, that he didn’t call them in on Jan 6th, that the LAPD called the protests mostly peaceful, etc.

People need motivation to act on their convictions. Visible push back from others is hugely important to seeing it as more unjustified and that they can refuse unlawful orders

It’s also a spectrum. Vaguely feeling that something is probably wrong vs seeing stories about how it’s wrong are different

Public opinion matters a lot in this movement - not because Noem will care - but because it influences how the members themselves of the national guard respond. If the nation guard members think it is unjustified, they are more likely to not follow any unlawful orders

Yes the charges are stupid, but they are primarily to make it so that Trump’s fold doesn’t look like a fold. This is a win that he is out from El Salvador and puts further pressure to bring back all the others in a similar situation

They’re continually paying El Salvador for this on an ongoing basis per Chris Van Hollen. To a place they could easily withhold funding if they wanted to until he was sent back

US Senator Van Hallen (from Maryland) flew down to El Salvador managed to see him after applying a bunch of pressure in mid April. So he was at least alive then. Photos were published and such of said meeting

Other dems from congress have flow down besides Van Hallen, but haven’t been able to get a visit. They’ve also had a ton less media attention, so there was less pressure on El Salvador to let them visit him. For instance, Glenn Ivey traveled to El Salvador and tried to visit a week ago but I doubt most people here probably heard about that

There’s one important detail that you might be missing here: Republicans are coming for the filibuster indirectly despite profusely saying how much they valued preserving senate rules

They are overriding the senate parliamentarian to do this. They are carving out the filibuster without saying they’re doing so. Right now it’s on some more technical details, but they are setting precedent that they can ignore the parliamentarian. The senate parliamentarian is the one who decides what counts as budget related for reconciliation (which is used as a narrow way around the filibuster strictly for budget). If they can just declare anything budget related and ignore the parliamentarian, they can push all kinds of stuff through that they otherwise couldn’t get through now

Through the series of votes Wednesday, Republicans set precedent for the Senate to reject the state EPA waivers with a simple majority vote. They made that move even after the Senate parliamentarian agreed with the Government Accountability Office that California’s policies are not subject to the Congressional Review Act, a law that allows Congress to reject federal regulations under certain circumstances