Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds

Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds

Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.

Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met.

Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.

Numerous experts said they had been left feeling hopeless, infuriated and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.

  • mathic@lemmy.world
    122·
    6 months ago

    The only chance we have that I see is the rapid development of fusion into a proper, usable power source, the supplantation of effectively all carbon emitting power plants with non-emitting plants (fusion or otherwise), the effectively complete electrification of the global commercial transport system, and a massive scaling of production direct carbon capture, leveraging the various aforementioned non-carbon emitting electricity sources to make it happen.

    • Naz@sh.itjust.works
      4·
      6 months ago

      Yep.

      Our experts estimate that the various societies on Earth have a 96% chance of solving the Great Filter using humanity’s great superpower of technological innovation, but paradoxically only a 3 to 7.5% chance of successfully implementing the necessary societal and political changes before complete extinction.

      • Cybermonk_Taiji@r.nfEnglish
        21·
        6 months ago

        How are they solving the Great Filter without knowing what it is or if it is more than a hypothetical?

    • ammonium@lemmy.world
      41·
      6 months ago

      I’m getting a bit more optimistic when I read about companies like Terraform Industries and Prometheus Fuels. If they really can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels, things can change really fast for the better.

    • wabafee@lemmy.world
      42·
      6 months ago

      To be fair there are more options. Like reduce over consumption, restore forested lands, voting the right people in the office. Prosecute abusers, big companies/ personalities who contribute to this issue.

    • FortuneMisteller@lemmy.world
      12·
      6 months ago

      The only chance we have that I see is the rapid development of fusion into a proper, usable power source,

      Fusion is a marketing story to distract the attention. It is so difficult to realize a practical commercial fusion technology that it will not be available this century for sure.

      In any case as I explained in the other comment the root cause is overpopulation. Solving the energy problems might mitigate for a while the situation, but it will not solve the situation. Famines, conflicts and mass migration will happen anyway.

      • Cybermonk_Taiji@r.nfEnglish
        31·
        6 months ago

        A cursory look at a graph of human population over time makes this abundantly clear.

        We are victims of our own success and are taking all other living things down with us.

      • crapwittyname@lemm.ee
        1·
        6 months ago

        Or, alternatively, having enough energy for everyone would mean no more population problem. Many thousands of people smarter than you and I believe that fusion power is feasible, and in our lifetime, and have dedicated their entire professional lives to that goal.
        It’s an insult to them to have wave it away like this.