Defeating an incumbent is no small feat, even with the insanity going on. Just look at Boebert as a prime example. Ted Cruz is despised, yet he keeps winning by the skin of his teeth.
I’m referring mainly to that phenomenon, not implying that it’s going to be a cakewalk or that people should get complacent.
He also got 74M votes in that election. I too don’t want him to win, but assuming he will lose is sure way to help him in the election.
In 2016 he won, because everyone was certain that Hillary has the presidency in her pocket. A lot of people who normally would vote for her did not show up or voted 3rd party as a protest, because they were certain that it won’t affect the outcome.
Trump lost, sure, but that’s the exception, not the rule. And in a head-to-head with Biden, who is doing a fabulous job ingratiating himself to unions, coupled with the clown show that is the remainder of the Republican party, and it’s an obvious uphill battle for anyone trying to unseat Biden.
However, as I said, that is not a call to get complacent. We collectively unseated the incumbent in 2020, but make no mistake that the people that want him there this time have a lot of money and influence. We need to be as coordinated if not more so this time around, because it really is going to be a matter of, “Do you want fascism or democracy?”
The autocratic powers pulling the GOP strings don’t intend to repeat their same mistakes.
Yeah, assuming trump loses, I’m still really nervous of the various ratfucking the GOP has prepped for 2024. But it is, in fact, not a guarantee that trump won’t win outright. There’s been a number of factors that have made biden somewhat unpopular (higher interest rates, gas prices, inflation). I believe those are mostly out of his control, but does the average voter? Biden is far from a perfect president, he’s done some pretty good stuff but he’s also somewhat milktoast in areas that might cause voters to not turn out.
Until the rightwing shitbags ditch their autocracy ambitions we are in a super perilous position. They have the judiciary locked up likely for the next 30 years which is going to make progress really super hard (making progressives look bad).
Until dems are consistently winning the house, senate, and presidency nobody should feel comfortable when a presidential election comes around. The fact that dems lost the house in 2022 is something that should make every anti-fascist nervous.
The fact that dems lost the house in 2022 is something that should make every anti-fascist nervous.
I agree, though I will say that was predictable (even though it didn’t have to happen at all). By all accounts, Democrats should have lost more, but thanks to a lot of effective grassroots efforts on shoestring budgets (fuck you, DNC), they didn’t.
Either way, it’s going to be a lifelong battle for many of us. Thanks, “Me Generation.” /s
They’re polling within a margin of error of eachother.
“Do you want fascism or democracy?”
This isn’t at all how the choice is internalized among the right. Nobody thinks they’e the bad guy. Nobody thinks they’re the facist. You’re trying to apply your own understanding of a situation to someone else’s reasoning… and that’s just not how any of this works.
Maybe Trump will win, maybe he won’t. But there are a lot of fundamental issues with your argument as you’ve presented it.
They’re polling within a margin of error of eachother.
Over a year out from the election. With problematic polling methodology. I’m not that worried about current matchups. A lot can change in a year, a month, a week before the actual vote takes place.
But there are a lot of fundamental issues with your argument as you’ve presented it.
I’m not trying to convince anyone on the right. I’m trying to convince people on the fence and bolster anyone’s waning resolve, because whether the right sees it that way doesn’t change the fact that those are the choices. Their fucked up paradigm doesn’t reflect reality, and I’m not obligated to pretend their fantasy is anything but that.
I mean, the same problematic polling methodology called 2016 a slam dunk for Hillary.
And you’re right, a lot can change in a year…
But honestly how much room is there for things to get better for Biden or worse for Trump? Biden pretty much could not be doing better. The economy is clearly headed in a good direction, he’s already going balls to the wall on infrastructure. He gets to stand back and just watch the GOP house implode on itself, getting to absolutely look like the only credible functioning adult in DC. Trump pretty much couldn’t do worse. He’s not even showing up to GOP debates, he’s just buying McDonald’s in court, where his crimes are in full plain indisputable view to everyone.
The polling numbers right now are what it looks like when everything is going right for Biden, and everything is going wrong for Trump. And it’s still a dead heat. The fact that there is a year to go shouldn’t comfort you, it should terrify you.
So again, I appreciate your optimism, and I hope against hope that you’re right… but I think your analysis comes through some very rose coloured glasses.
Hillary won the popular vote. The Republicans haven’t won the popular vote since 92, and it’s increasingly unlikely they ever will again. This sucks because that allows the DNC to throw whatever milquetoast fossile they want to into the seat, because they know they have the country held hostage by the FPTP bullshit.
you’re out of your mind if you think they’re unlikely to win in 2024, that’s exactly what everyone thought about 2016
Defeating an incumbent is no small feat, even with the insanity going on. Just look at Boebert as a prime example. Ted Cruz is despised, yet he keeps winning by the skin of his teeth.
I’m referring mainly to that phenomenon, not implying that it’s going to be a cakewalk or that people should get complacent.
Yet trump lost in 2020 despite being incumbent.
He also got 74M votes in that election. I too don’t want him to win, but assuming he will lose is sure way to help him in the election.
In 2016 he won, because everyone was certain that Hillary has the presidency in her pocket. A lot of people who normally would vote for her did not show up or voted 3rd party as a protest, because they were certain that it won’t affect the outcome.
Trump lost, sure, but that’s the exception, not the rule. And in a head-to-head with Biden, who is doing a fabulous job ingratiating himself to unions, coupled with the clown show that is the remainder of the Republican party, and it’s an obvious uphill battle for anyone trying to unseat Biden.
However, as I said, that is not a call to get complacent. We collectively unseated the incumbent in 2020, but make no mistake that the people that want him there this time have a lot of money and influence. We need to be as coordinated if not more so this time around, because it really is going to be a matter of, “Do you want fascism or democracy?”
The autocratic powers pulling the GOP strings don’t intend to repeat their same mistakes.
Yeah, assuming trump loses, I’m still really nervous of the various ratfucking the GOP has prepped for 2024. But it is, in fact, not a guarantee that trump won’t win outright. There’s been a number of factors that have made biden somewhat unpopular (higher interest rates, gas prices, inflation). I believe those are mostly out of his control, but does the average voter? Biden is far from a perfect president, he’s done some pretty good stuff but he’s also somewhat milktoast in areas that might cause voters to not turn out.
Until the rightwing shitbags ditch their autocracy ambitions we are in a super perilous position. They have the judiciary locked up likely for the next 30 years which is going to make progress really super hard (making progressives look bad).
Until dems are consistently winning the house, senate, and presidency nobody should feel comfortable when a presidential election comes around. The fact that dems lost the house in 2022 is something that should make every anti-fascist nervous.
I agree, though I will say that was predictable (even though it didn’t have to happen at all). By all accounts, Democrats should have lost more, but thanks to a lot of effective grassroots efforts on shoestring budgets (fuck you, DNC), they didn’t.
Either way, it’s going to be a lifelong battle for many of us. Thanks, “Me Generation.” /s
They’re polling within a margin of error of eachother.
This isn’t at all how the choice is internalized among the right. Nobody thinks they’e the bad guy. Nobody thinks they’re the facist. You’re trying to apply your own understanding of a situation to someone else’s reasoning… and that’s just not how any of this works.
Maybe Trump will win, maybe he won’t. But there are a lot of fundamental issues with your argument as you’ve presented it.
Over a year out from the election. With problematic polling methodology. I’m not that worried about current matchups. A lot can change in a year, a month, a week before the actual vote takes place.
I’m not trying to convince anyone on the right. I’m trying to convince people on the fence and bolster anyone’s waning resolve, because whether the right sees it that way doesn’t change the fact that those are the choices. Their fucked up paradigm doesn’t reflect reality, and I’m not obligated to pretend their fantasy is anything but that.
I mean, the same problematic polling methodology called 2016 a slam dunk for Hillary.
And you’re right, a lot can change in a year…
But honestly how much room is there for things to get better for Biden or worse for Trump? Biden pretty much could not be doing better. The economy is clearly headed in a good direction, he’s already going balls to the wall on infrastructure. He gets to stand back and just watch the GOP house implode on itself, getting to absolutely look like the only credible functioning adult in DC. Trump pretty much couldn’t do worse. He’s not even showing up to GOP debates, he’s just buying McDonald’s in court, where his crimes are in full plain indisputable view to everyone.
The polling numbers right now are what it looks like when everything is going right for Biden, and everything is going wrong for Trump. And it’s still a dead heat. The fact that there is a year to go shouldn’t comfort you, it should terrify you.
So again, I appreciate your optimism, and I hope against hope that you’re right… but I think your analysis comes through some very rose coloured glasses.
Hillary won the popular vote. The Republicans haven’t won the popular vote since 92, and it’s increasingly unlikely they ever will again. This sucks because that allows the DNC to throw whatever milquetoast fossile they want to into the seat, because they know they have the country held hostage by the FPTP bullshit.
popular vote doesn’t matter
it’s amazing how you people always find a way to blame Democrats for literally everything
what year is it?