When there are 4 or 5 companies worth over a trillion dollars each, and those companies combine for 60% of the volume and value of the S&P and NASDAQ, and they are all in on ai, well…
It’s not quite right to say those companies are “all in on AI” when their core businesses are still based on physical products and established services. These were already highly successful companies long before the AI boom. If their valuations are inflated because of the hype, a correction wouldn’t send them to zero - it would just bring their prices back in line with their actual underlying value.
But, nvidia (the largest by weight/volume/value on each of the indexes) would be almost nothing without the ai hype, and the loss of Chinese contracts will see it plunge regardless of a bubble.
Google, ms, and apple have added nothing of worth to their products while pumping billions to their ai surveillance bots.
All told, the value of the indexes will plummet like Wile E. Coyote when cartoon reality kicks in.
The bottom, however, will hit much harder than he ever felt.
At the same time, the further things get pulled away from the historical trend, the harder the rebouce (and overshooting) when whatever was doing the pulling finally cracks.
(Mind, you, having been in Gold since 2010 following the last Crash - mainly because that was the second Crash I was right smack in the middle of due to working in the Industry most affected, so I became very conservative as an investor and weary about the current Economic structure - I am oh so intimatelly familiar with that saying, having been expecting for a decade and a half what I saw as an innevitable broad economic collapse due to unresolved causes of the last crash and by how sticking to ultra-low interest rates, Central Banks did not have those tools available this time around with anywhere the same power as back in 2008.
Judging by how Gold has moved since 2023, there seem to be more and more people expecting the same as me).
Things can actually go back, A LOT, if a collapse spreads to a broader society which is weakened by massive inequality and incompetent power elites fully in pillaging mode, were it becomes structural.
And don’t get me started on what happens to a nation that’s the dominant nation of an era, at the end of their Imperial period, which is where the US is at the moment.
It’s just very unlikely to happen in the lifetime of anybody (so people are prone to the falacy of thinking “this will never happen”), but definitelly happens as History shows us.
I agree that such a deep regression is unlikely. We almost always regress at least Economically with a Crash, but it’s years or maybe a decade, almost never a century or two. Mind you, in broad scope of History, it’s normal for societies to collapse, though never all societies at once. Somewhere in the World people will be fine, just not necessarily were we live.
The Dark Ages was not the end of society, only a regression in Technologic and Economic terms for Europe alone and eventually Europe recovered and surpassed the technological and economic peak of the Roman Empire.
I’m just pointing out that sometimes the World doesn’t merelly “trudge on”: at least in some places it actually regresses a lot, sometimes the equivalent of centuries-worth of social and technological development, before going back to “trudging on”.
Every market ever has crashed, but the world trudges on
is a statement disproven by History.
(PS: Actually, thinking about it, you are correct in that at least that part of the World does trudge on. Just not necessarily the bit we’re on)
the “Dark Ages” was a term coined by a guy from Tuscany who was a big fan of classical antiquity about the fall of Rome 600 years before he was born and is an incredibly biased term from that perspective, and was coined because Petrach believed Rome’s collapse meant the death of classical Latin as a lingua franca and thus the world is bad.
It’s literally just “phone bad, wife bad, oldey timey malt sodas and rollerrinks good, make America great again” hokum but from a guy in the 12th century talking about the 5th century
From any other perspective the idea of that being the shame of mankind is kinda silly.
This idea was then co-opted by the Protestants in the 16th C as a way to say “See?! The Catholics fucked us! We need to un-catholicize the church with a schism!”
You’re criticizing the expression but not disproving the fact that Europe went back in Economics and Technological terms (to the point that formula for cement from the Romans was lost until the XXth century and the proven knowledge that the Earth was round dating from all the way back in the Ancient Greek time was forgotten, also for centuries) to the point that by the 12th Century the Arabs were more culturally and economically developed than Europe (and, curiously, it was the irrigation techniques brough to Europe by the Arabs during the Moorish Occupation of the Iberian Peninsula which, after spreading through Europe, created the Economic conditions for cities to grow and the Renaissance).
This wasn’t a regression of mankind, it was a regression of Europe - it weren’t the Arabs who burned down the Great Library Of Alexandry.
Roman ruled areas went back. The Byzantine empires and middle eastern caliphates did not - as you say. Greece, England, western France, Nordic countries all developed intra-connected Monastic libraries that were attacked by raiders for their books.
Yes, it was bad for Italy, but so was Berlusconi, and we don’t say that caused the decline of the entire world.
I think my lack of clarity in my original post is at fault here.
As I pointed out in my more recent post, the Dark Ages were a regression for Europe, not for the rest of the World.
I never meant for my reference to the Dark Ages to be interpreted as meaning that the whole World suffered.
The original point I was trying to make is that “every market ever has crashed, but the world trudges on” can be read as an excessivelly complacent take, because even if elsewhere people are fine it doesn’t mean for we ourselves were we are, that our own way of living will remain and we will be fine.
“Manking will survive” doesn’t mean our own society won’t be screwed and end up going back relative to the rest in Economic and even Technological terms.
When there are 4 or 5 companies worth over a trillion dollars each, and those companies combine for 60% of the volume and value of the S&P and NASDAQ, and they are all in on ai, well…
Buy ammo, I guess.
It’s not quite right to say those companies are “all in on AI” when their core businesses are still based on physical products and established services. These were already highly successful companies long before the AI boom. If their valuations are inflated because of the hype, a correction wouldn’t send them to zero - it would just bring their prices back in line with their actual underlying value.
Fair.
But, nvidia (the largest by weight/volume/value on each of the indexes) would be almost nothing without the ai hype, and the loss of Chinese contracts will see it plunge regardless of a bubble.
Google, ms, and apple have added nothing of worth to their products while pumping billions to their ai surveillance bots.
All told, the value of the indexes will plummet like Wile E. Coyote when cartoon reality kicks in.
The bottom, however, will hit much harder than he ever felt.
No, buy puts.
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
At the same time, the further things get pulled away from the historical trend, the harder the rebouce (and overshooting) when whatever was doing the pulling finally cracks.
(Mind, you, having been in Gold since 2010 following the last Crash - mainly because that was the second Crash I was right smack in the middle of due to working in the Industry most affected, so I became very conservative as an investor and weary about the current Economic structure - I am oh so intimatelly familiar with that saying, having been expecting for a decade and a half what I saw as an innevitable broad economic collapse due to unresolved causes of the last crash and by how sticking to ultra-low interest rates, Central Banks did not have those tools available this time around with anywhere the same power as back in 2008.
Judging by how Gold has moved since 2023, there seem to be more and more people expecting the same as me).
Can you get money from a non existent economy?
Every market ever has crashed, but the world trudges on.
Remember the Dark Ages?
Things can actually go back, A LOT, if a collapse spreads to a broader society which is weakened by massive inequality and incompetent power elites fully in pillaging mode, were it becomes structural.
And don’t get me started on what happens to a nation that’s the dominant nation of an era, at the end of their Imperial period, which is where the US is at the moment.
It’s just very unlikely to happen in the lifetime of anybody (so people are prone to the falacy of thinking “this will never happen”), but definitelly happens as History shows us.
Will it get that bad? No idea.
Can it? Absolutelly.
I don’t think the bottom dropping out on the AI boom will end society.
Two points:
I’m just pointing out that sometimes the World doesn’t merelly “trudge on”: at least in some places it actually regresses a lot, sometimes the equivalent of centuries-worth of social and technological development, before going back to “trudging on”.
is a statement disproven by History.
(PS: Actually, thinking about it, you are correct in that at least that part of the World does trudge on. Just not necessarily the bit we’re on)
the “Dark Ages” was a term coined by a guy from Tuscany who was a big fan of classical antiquity about the fall of Rome 600 years before he was born and is an incredibly biased term from that perspective, and was coined because Petrach believed Rome’s collapse meant the death of classical Latin as a lingua franca and thus the world is bad.
It’s literally just “phone bad, wife bad, oldey timey malt sodas and rollerrinks good, make America great again” hokum but from a guy in the 12th century talking about the 5th century
From any other perspective the idea of that being the shame of mankind is kinda silly.
This idea was then co-opted by the Protestants in the 16th C as a way to say “See?! The Catholics fucked us! We need to un-catholicize the church with a schism!”
You’re criticizing the expression but not disproving the fact that Europe went back in Economics and Technological terms (to the point that formula for cement from the Romans was lost until the XXth century and the proven knowledge that the Earth was round dating from all the way back in the Ancient Greek time was forgotten, also for centuries) to the point that by the 12th Century the Arabs were more culturally and economically developed than Europe (and, curiously, it was the irrigation techniques brough to Europe by the Arabs during the Moorish Occupation of the Iberian Peninsula which, after spreading through Europe, created the Economic conditions for cities to grow and the Renaissance).
This wasn’t a regression of mankind, it was a regression of Europe - it weren’t the Arabs who burned down the Great Library Of Alexandry.
Roman ruled areas went back. The Byzantine empires and middle eastern caliphates did not - as you say. Greece, England, western France, Nordic countries all developed intra-connected Monastic libraries that were attacked by raiders for their books.
Yes, it was bad for Italy, but so was Berlusconi, and we don’t say that caused the decline of the entire world.
I think my lack of clarity in my original post is at fault here.
As I pointed out in my more recent post, the Dark Ages were a regression for Europe, not for the rest of the World.
I never meant for my reference to the Dark Ages to be interpreted as meaning that the whole World suffered.
The original point I was trying to make is that “every market ever has crashed, but the world trudges on” can be read as an excessivelly complacent take, because even if elsewhere people are fine it doesn’t mean for we ourselves were we are, that our own way of living will remain and we will be fine.
“Manking will survive” doesn’t mean our own society won’t be screwed and end up going back relative to the rest in Economic and even Technological terms.
Removed by mod
Personally I’m more of the Mycenaean, let their places burn and make them taste bronze!
What to do with the casts when the molten bronze is poured down their throats?
I just want to jam a sword down their throats like the weird cousin of Vlad Types of Wallachia. What your describing is more Persian IMO.
IANAHistorian so I don’t know.
Either way works for me.
Ancient dinosaurian proverb
As if “this time is different” isn’t.
By the way, the book “This Time Is Different” is a great read for those curious about the History of Economic Crashes.