• ShinkanTrain@lemmy.ml
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    1 day ago

    Young men

    There’s no need to feel down

    I said young me- wait where is everyone going?

    • DupaCycki@lemmy.world
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      4 hours ago

      In such a hypothetical scenario Ukraine becomes part of Russia, and nothing really changes for the rest of the world. Nobody has any obligations to rescue Ukraine. Sure, we can start a war to reclaim Ukraine’s territory, but we’re not going to. Likewise, Putin won’t attack Europe, because Russia can’t afford such a large-scale conflict. Especially one that would likely end with their loss.

    • Moidialectica [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      1 day ago

      Do people of Europe actually want war with Russia? Wasn’t there a whole scandal in Romania because of people explicitly not wanting to have war?

      if war starts, I can only imagine it’ll be Vietnam/Ukraine all over again, except in proper EU territory this time

      • PMmeTrebuchets@lemmy.zip
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        4 hours ago

        I do not want war but I also am not sure what will happen. I feels bad to just let Russia have Ukraine (if it covers to that). Because you know they will not stop there.

    • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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      1 day ago

      NATO can’t field an actual war against Russia, NATO countries don’t have the industrial capacity to do so. NATO has big scary tools, but not many of them, and in a protracted war where the industrial power wins Russia would win out. It would be very bloody, long, and NATO would lose, so it’s unlikely that there will be all-out war.

      • luciferofastora@feddit.org
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        5 hours ago

        The only actual issue in a confrontation between NATO and Russia is that it’s a conflict between nuclear powers. Whatever the balance in conventional or drone warfare would turn out to be, the fact that either party could, if pushed to desperation, decide they have nothing to lose and might take a chance on the enemy’s retaliation strikes failing: That is the risk of open war between NATO and Russia.

        No matter who you’re rooting for, we may all end up losing.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          5 hours ago

          There’s more issue than just that it would be a war between nuclear powers, large-scale conventional warfare is still devastating for all involved groups, but the threat of nuclear war is massive, I agree.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          4 hours ago

          NATO outspends Russia 10-1. That doesn’t translate to actual firepower or sustained war capacity. Russian production is much cheaper for comparable quality.

          • brachiosaurus@mander.xyz
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            3 hours ago

            If the same thing is 10 times cheaper i would argue that the quality is not comparable. USA alone outpower any other country in war capacity and assets, if you add the the rest of NATO countries it sound like a joke to claim russia could match them.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              3 hours ago

              You’re confusing the monetary price with actual, qualitative results. The same widget costs more money to produce in the US than it would in Russia, Russia has lower labor costs and higher industrialization. There’s also effectiveness, drones are cheap and can often achieve the same or better results than traditional ballistic missiles that cost more. The fact that the west spends a lot is due to the millitary industrial complex. To equate capital investment across different economies is an error, you can find the same medicine in the US for hundreds of times the price as you can in Canada, as an alternative example.

      • DNU@lemmy.world
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        4 hours ago

        This thread is legit pure standup comedy. Cowbee the one and only one who understands the military complex like no other. Here you go, welcome to my blocklist, you shant be missed.

      • RepleteLocum@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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        8 hours ago

        .ml loser coping. NATO would have air superiority within hours and crush your balls. You’re using drones instead of artillery and anti tank missiles because you’re so broke.

        • FlyingCircus@lemmy.world
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          4 hours ago

          Ah, and here we have it, the Lemmy “Anarchist” showing their true allegiance to the capitalist world order.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          8 hours ago

          I’m not Russian, for one, and for two, drone warfare is used by all current conflicts because its cheap and extremely effective. Russia still produces tanks and artillery. I don’t know why people get so bloodthirsty, outright war between Russia and NATO is the last thing anyone should want.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              6 hours ago

              Russia is a huge country, with 146 million people. Russia does have nukes, and does have a modern millitary with industrialized production outpacing NATO. Again, a war with NATO would be long and bloody, but likely would result in Russia winning or both sides losing. War with Russia should be the last thing anyone wants.

              Israel couldn’t even beat Iran, and Israel has all of the fanciest tools NATO has. A war with Russia would be long, bloody, and benefit nobody.

              • lepinkainen@lemmy.world
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                2 hours ago

                ”Modern military” is a stretch. They have handfuls of wunderwaffen but the bulk of their equipment is relatively ancient.

                There’s a reason we don’t see their latest and greatest tanks and planes, because they don’t have any. The vast majority of tanks in Ukraine are older than the internet 😝

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  2 hours ago

                  Both sides have sizable soviet stockpiles, but both Russia and NATO have been supplying modern arms and equipment.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          1 day ago

          They are steadily achieving all of their stated objectives for the SMO. Russia isn’t trying to do a Marvel-style total destruction of Ukraine like you see in hollywood depictions of war.

          • Tenderizer78@lemmy.ml
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            1 day ago

            Their goalposts have moved. Originally they attacked on all fronts including the capital and expected to topple Ukraine within a week.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              1 day ago

              Their goalposts haven’t moved, their strategy was to open with shock and awe and then push for protracted war, taking advantage of surprise. They didn’t expect to topple Ukraine in a week, that’s largely a misquote from the early 2010s.

          • Prove_your_argument@piefed.social
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            1 day ago

            “steadily” as in… they complete one every couple of years? How long until they’re done? 10-20-30 years? They started this in 2014 and 11 years later they’ve accomplished next to nothing beyond creating a pile of bodies.

            If germany took this long to take poland it probably wouldn’t have been world war at all.

            • Alchalide@lemmy.world
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              6 hours ago

              I heard something along the lines of: If a snail started crawling at the same time Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The snail would have crossed the polish border by now.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              1 day ago

              The SMO started in 2022. In 2014, after the western-backed Euromaidan coup, Crimea was annexed but then there were multiple attempts to resolve things peacefully, called the Minsk Agreements, which Kiev broke both times. In 2014, Donetsk and Luhansk seceded from the new far-right led Ukraine, fastforward to 2022 after a decade of fighting and Russia agrees to go in and resolve things by force.

              Since 2022, Russia has steadily been gaining more and more territory, and has nearly completely taken the four oblasts they declared as their targets for annexation. Ukraine has slowly but steadily been losing ground, and NATO has proven to be incapable of matching Russian industrial output. Russia isn’t trying to do a Blitzkreig, they are going carefully to fully demillitarize Ukraine and prevent casualties on their own end. They have the industrial capacity to field a protracted war, so they are playing to their advantage.

              • manuallybreathing@lemmy.ml
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                7 hours ago

                Russia moved to take Crimea only after the Ukranian govt was couped by the USA, because there’s a Russian naval base on the Crimean peninsula

                being surprised by this is like saying the USA wouldn’t invade South Korea (or any of the 100s of states with US bases) if their govt was couped by another government

                as always, you’re more patient than I, comrade, I respect you immensely

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  7 hours ago

                  Yep, when it comes to Russia liberals start thinking about their actions, past, present, and future, in terms of how evil they are, rather than as another country. It’s always too weak yet too strong, always capable of steering foreign elections and taking on all of Europe but also about to collapse, etc. It’s tiring, because after the dust settles the liberal cope will always be that NATO didn’t support Ukraine enough for them to win, which will always be an unfalsifiable hypothesis.

                  And thanks, I appreciate it comrade!

              • fox2263@lemmy.world
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                1 day ago

                I read a few articles that said at russias current pace it would take them a hundred years to take Ukraine.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  1 day ago

                  They aren’t trying to take Ukraine, though, and they can progress faster as frontlines are broken through. Pokrovsk, as an example, is currently encircled by Russian forces and will probably be abandoned by Kiev soon, or a large-scale siege will occur.

                  Whether you’re pro-Ukrainian or not, it’s important to recognize that Ukraine is steadily losing ground and has far less staying power in a protracted war than Russia does. Russia’s advancing slowly and basically forcing a long-term war, which works in their favor.

      • SreudianFlip@sh.itjust.works
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        22 hours ago

        20th C thinking.

        • NATO countries would tool up fairly quickly on a war footing
        • strategic advantage is no longer about tanks and artillery, it’s about the next few generations of drones
        • dirty tricks haven’t even begun, really
        • energy capacity is at this weird turning point of shifting production options and efficiencies, makes predictions harder
        • Ukraine’s industrial capacity has changed to a war footing and they now export drones
        • a non-democratic Ukraine would be a risk as big as oligarchy Russia
        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          22 hours ago

          NATO countries have hollowed out their industry for the last century, instead preferring to outsource production and plunder the world. Further, ballistic munitions are still useful, as are drones. There’s no realistic scenario where NATO countries can mobilize to full wartime economies, not with industry as hollowed out as it is.

          • AWistfulNihilist@lemmy.world
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            19 hours ago

            It’s cute you think the military industrial complex is so weak, or that the near moritorium on long range ballistcs hasn’t been incredibly beneficial to Russia.

            In reality, the second money starts pouring into a European war effort, all thoughts of AI will be gone, they’ll be pulling apart gpus for spare silicon for the war machine. That’s profit at an unbelievable scale.

            Like this almost feels like cope…

            • lepinkainen@lemmy.world
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              6 hours ago

              Putin RAN to a negotiating table when Trump hinted at Tomahawks being available to Ukraine.

              Then immediately backed down when TACO.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              15 hours ago

              The MIC runs on the profit motive, it’s far more expensive to develop comparable tools than compared to state-run industry, and the west has already holowed out its own industry.

              • AWistfulNihilist@lemmy.world
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                15 hours ago

                Profit motive doesn’t equal capital investment. Watch how fast the machine moves when profit motive meets profit opportunity. I saw this hollowed out line repeated a whole bunch, your latest mantra?

                “There is no industry in Bah Sing Se”

                Unfortunately my recently rested and bathed friend, Russia is barely moving a war against a tiny nation getting scraps compared to even 1 day of munitions used killing Palestinians. It’s not even hard to debunk this one, you just sound silly.

                Wow, you’re so wrong in this you’re actually getting negative in your hugbox, that’s wild. Guess you can’t win em all.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  14 hours ago

                  Russia is steadily achieving their aims, they don’t need to rapidly advance because they aren’t trying to take all of Ukraine. They have the industrial capacity to be steady and thorough. Ukraine is putting up a fight, but can’t actually last for much longer.

                  Secondly, regarding the profit motive, it will always result in less efficient investment. Industry is hollowed out, and can’t be built overnight. Missiles, drones, etc cost far more to produce in the US than in Russia for comparable results.

      • I think if NATO did go to war with Russia, it knows it has a much larger military and supposedly “better” equipment.

        I think they’d try to end it really quickly and either totally devestate russia quickly or take out their industry.

        But Israel-iran has showed that not even America has the ability to do an actual war against another industrial power

        • Evilsandwichman [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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          24 hours ago

          I think if NATO did go to war with Russia, it knows it has a much larger military and supposedly “better” equipment.

          I think they’d try to end it really quickly and either totally devestate russia quickly or take out their industry.

          Okay wild fantasies aside, back here in the real world, what’s NATO supposed to actually do? If they try to ‘devastate’ Russia, as in attempt to turn it into Gaza, Russia will 100% nuke the offending countries seriously firing this kind of barrage against them. They’ve been reasonable against Ukraine because Ukraine has hardly been a threat (in fact most Russians would probably say too reasonable), but if a threat they’ve credibly been fearing for decades decided to pull out all the stops, so will they; NATO knows this which is why they weren’t officially in the war this whole time; the best time to be involved was literally day 1, the next best time was day 2, and so on and so forth.

          The simple fact is when Ukraine falls, the war is over; you want a country that was willing to risk their safety to get involved in a conflict? You have Yemen, they showed what a country willing to get bombed is willing to do; Euro countries don’t want to get bombed; Let me say that again: Euro countries don’t. want. to. get. bombed. All these countries in Europe had their chance to show how far they were willing to oppose Russia, back when Ukraine had a lot more people to throw in the meat grinder; there’s a lot less Ukrainians now who can and will fight, and Euro forces would have to bear the brunt of the fighting, and if they were willing to do this, they would’ve done it far earlier. Europe. Is. Scared. They won’t join this fight.

          When Ukraine falls, the war is over.

            • PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmy.ml
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              10 hours ago

              I love libs in this thread, some of them are like “Ukraine is winning” and some like “Russia will invade entire Europe”. They gained both takes by following the same propaganda.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          1 day ago

          If they had to, then they would try shock and awe. Protracted war wouldn’t work out, whoever has industry holds the cards long-term. Russia would go for stall tactics, I would think.

      • sgtlion [any]@hexbear.net
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        23 hours ago

        Weren’t all these points equally valid when the West actively thrust Ukraine into war, too?

        You’re assuming NATO instead maybe cares about the lives of non-Ukrainians in Europe, I wouldn’t rely on that. We are all meat for the MIC profit blender. Winning or losing the war is almost irrelevant, no citizen of the core is safe so long as their deaths might make line go up in the short term.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          23 hours ago

          Ukraine is an attack dog for NATO, and porkie would love to send workers to war, but not if it hurts their bottom line. That’s why they’ve tried to use proxies like Ukraine.

      • Diplomjodler@lemmy.world
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        1 day ago

        Russia has had its ass kicked with western hand-me-downs. Once they roll out the real kit, the whole thing will be over within days.

        • Matty Roses@lemmygrad.ml
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          20 hours ago

          You’ll be greeted as liberators?

          Well, not YOU personally . . . Chickenhawks saying this crap never seem to make it to the front lines.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          1 day ago

          Russia is winning now, and hasn’t fielded the “real kit” either. NATO just does not have the productive capacity to field a long term war. I’m not sure why warmongers like yourself keep thinking there’s going to be a grand turning point, in a decade when we look back on this event I fear the warmongers will say they knew the outcome all along.

            • limer@lemmy.ml
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              22 hours ago

              There is nothing militarily nato can do. Even if different countries wanted to help more and actually fielded armies, it would be a stalemate. Only a political solution will work.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  22 hours ago

                  Because it doesn’t have the power to take down an industrialized nuclear power like Russia in a short term war. I don’t see what you’re imagining here.

              • Quatlicopatlix@feddit.org
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                3 hours ago

                So russia just doesnt value the life of their solders or why dont they use the good kit to just win if they have it and its so good? Why are they fine with so many casualties?

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  3 hours ago

                  Things like Oreshnik don’t make sense to use at scale against Ukraine, as an example, but would be valuable in fighting against NATO countries that are further away. Other tools like the stock of T90s they have are potentially being stockpiled for a later, large-scale offensive after wearing down Ukrainian troops and supplies, or for fighting against a NATO power.

                  An alternative is asking why the US doesn’t approach Yemen with aircraft carriers, and the answer is because of the economics of war. It’s far too much economic risk to bring your better tools out when cheaper tools are effective.

                  There’s also the fact that Ukraine publishes inflated numbers of casualties, the real casualty numbers aren’t as high as Kiev reports. I imagine Russia is underplaying it too, which means the real answer is likely somewhere in the middle.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              22 hours ago

              Not at all, and I don’t think ableism is a substitute for a point. I want the war to end, which means peace talks now and concessions from Ukraine.

              • fox2263@lemmy.world
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                22 hours ago

                Why should they concede anything. They’re a sovereign nation, and owe nothing. The war can end right now by Russia returning back whence it came.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  22 hours ago

                  Because they are losing the war. The world does not run on Marvel-logic, Russia isn’t going to stop until their stated goals are met.

  • Bobr@lemmy.libertarianfellowship.org
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    1 day ago

    I wonder if in retrospect this will be considered “the straw that broke the camel’s back”?

    Putting aside the jokes about “they don’t gain ground fast enough therefore I win”, Zelensky’s strategy of fighting with a slave army of kidnapped men was and still is quite sucessful - Russia liberates no more than tens of km2 a day.
    But now, for whatever reason, he lets a good chunk of potential cannon fodder leave. Eventually running out of cannon fodder was always a ticking time bomb, and now it’s even worse…

    • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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      The reason Russia liberates no more than tens of km2 a day is because Russia has the advantage at multiple levels and therefore can afford to move more slowly, risk fewer casualties, gather better intelligence, and maintain a sufficiently responsive position in the case of surprise.

      It is not to Russia’s detriment that they move slow they are choosing it.

      • Bobr@lemmy.libertarianfellowship.org
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        21 hours ago

        Ah right, thanks for pointing out my mistake!
        When talking about army of kidnapped slaves I of course meant the one from the country where busification (act of violently kidnapping someone to send them to the meatgrinder, obviously against their will) has become “the word of 2024” according to a dictionary organization from that same country.
        Would you be so kind to help me to identify this country, pretty please?

        • fox2263@lemmy.world
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          21 hours ago

          Russia. They conscripted. They also ran out of them so had to empty prisons and use them. And when that wasn’t enough, conscripted again. And also enlist from overseas, offering lavish pay to Africans and Pakistanis et al for engineering and analytics jobs in the army but were actually sent to the front lines (so they’d die and not have to continue paying them).

          A marked difference from conscription in defence of the homeland wouldn’t you say?

            • fox2263@lemmy.world
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              5 hours ago

              Thank you. Sometimes it feels like shouting into the wind!

              But yea, two things can indeed be true.

              When your country is under invasion and you have a legally mandated conscription … of course people will be scared and try to evade it.

              But they try and hand wave over the fact that Russia also does it and much worse, especially when they don’t need to because they’re fighting an offensive war (badly).

              America had the draft and so did Britain. Was that decried as abhorrent?