Matrix has the same issue as Mastodon did with Twitter/X. People do not want to think about servers, can they talk to their friends, who’s running this one, is their data safe (keep in mind that’s why they’d be leaving in this case), will it last more than a week, does it have the same features, does it even have content, etc. They just want an alternative that does the exact same things as well without the thing that caused them to leave.

Bluesky worked out, and even then most people are on X still, because even though it’s technically something that can federate, it’s just something you sign up for normally and use. Plus it had enough of an algorithm that people just have content when they open the app.

Lemmy worked out (less successfully in terms of numbers) because reddit actively spat in your face and said fuck you, you don’t get to use this the way you always have, and then strong armed all the communities to keep them from “protesting” anymore. So people who cared enough left, and the community that came up to host enough instances and deal with all the growing pains (RIP lemm.ee) made for a very usable replacement for reddit.

I believe stoat (revolt previously) is an application that’s just a clone of discord from a different company, so if my bets were anywhere, it’d be that they take off. For matrix to take off, I would think you need a specific server pushing themselves as the discord replacement, like bluesky basically did and then you’d need a single do everything client that people can use. At least then you’d have the ability to use another server or host your own and still chat with your friends who don’t care about all that. Thing is, other than matrix.org i don’t know if that exists, and I’m pretty sure a client like that doesn’t exist (though I’m not that experienced with it). I have element, element x, and fluffychat on my phone all with different experiences, and it’s sort of the same on my desktop.