Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.
My heart goes out to Musk…
No worries! The stock price keeps going up, so it doesn’t matter how many cars Tesla actually sells.
Tesla global sales by year compared to Ford and Toyota
The incredible thing isn’t the slight down tick in sales last year (on par with most international car companies), but that Tesla has a market cap that exceeds both of these mega-manufacturers despite being dwarfed in both assets and revenues.
On paper, they have so much farther to fall than what these short term sales shortfalls imply. But then this is a car company that’s defied gravity for a decade. Consider that each vehicle Tesla sells reflects $700k - $1M in market cap. On a $60k-$110k vehicle.
All their valuation is predicated on future predicted returns on the technology rather than current sales figures. And I don’t know when that will actually change.
I think the 3 things Tesla has/had going for them was…
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Car sales growth. The had some pretty ridiculous growth in sales for a few years there.
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Captive Market. Pretty much everyone I know with a Tesla charges at home, or at a Tesla supercharger. They’ve got the Apple ecosystem lock in for the “fuel” you put in the car. This walled garden approach basically lets Apple print money.
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Technology. FSD, autopilot, and manufacturing. Tesla presented as a very tech focused company that was dumping money into R&D similar to how Amazon built up in the early 2000s. Investors love companies that are poised to control the entire market in the future.
Pretty much all 3 of these pillars have collapsed now. Their car sales are in a huge global slump. More cars are available that can charge on other charging networks, and those charging networks get bigger and better every day. Elon’s FSD is basically vaporware at this point, and the high degree of automation Tesla was touting in their factories came back to bite them in the ass.
This leads to my favorite recent quote about stocks though… “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Let’s face it, Tesla stock is a bubble, AI is a huge bubble. The problem isn’t knowing that there is a bubble, the problem is knowing when that bubble is going to burst.
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Tesla stock price is a load of crap, pushed up solely by Elon chuds.
What a beautiful way to present the situation.
It’s very clear that at this point, insofar as there is any logic at all to the decision making of people investing in Tesla (and there’s very little evidence of that), they’re evaluating it as a software company, not a car company.
This seems to be largely based on the notion that Tesla is the world leader in self-driving, and poised to become the world leader in other areas of automation. And that would, admittedly, mostly justify their very high share price, if there was literally any evidence it was true. Of course, what they actually have is a self-driving system that is only number one in fatalities caused, and a bunch of faked demos of robots made using low paid remote operators.
Tesla is easily the single best demonstration of how fucked our economic system really is. That a company can so blatantly lie, over and over, about what their products can actually do, and somehow continue to see their share price increase tells you everything you need to know about how utterly fictitious the entire notion of the stock market is.
they’re evaluating it as a software company, not a car company.
That still doesn’t justify the valuation. Tesla’s market cap is 3x Oracle’s, ffs. It’s half of a Microsoft. No software they produce can justify this valuation.
Palantir and NVIDIA have the same hyper-inflated position. Nothing in their projected revenue figures can explain their company’s valuation, unless you’re just hand-waving and predicting 10-20x growth over the next decade.
Tesla is easily the single best demonstration of how fucked our economic system really is. That a company can so blatantly lie, over and over, about what their products can actually do, and somehow continue to see their share price increase tells you everything you need to know about how utterly fictitious the entire notion of the stock market is.
Warren Buffet definitely gearing up to print off another deck of “Fell For It Again” awards. Only question is when they get handed out.
unless you’re just hand-waving and predicting 10-20x growth over the next decade.
That’s exactly what they’re doing.
The problem is that hyper-advanced automation is essentially unpriceable. When your potential market penetration is “replace all human labour” your profit potential is basically simultaneously zero and infinite depending on how thoroughly capitalism-pilled you are (and we’re talking about people with serious investments here, so the answer to that is obviously “very”).
The real is issue is not how they’re pricing the potential upside, its that none of these companies have remotely demonstrated that they have the ability to actually produce that upside. It’s an entire industry shilling a fantasy on the back of some very impressive sales demos.
The problem is that hyper-advanced automation is essentially unpriceable.
I mean, I could point you to a few economics journalists who would argue otherwise. Ed Zitron’s been screaming about the downfall of AI for the last two years straight.
But the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, as the saying goes.
It’s an entire industry shilling a fantasy on the back of some very impressive sales demos.
Doesn’t hurt to have a bunch of tech-friendly goobers running state and federal governments who are turning out the taxpayer’s wallet to finance these hallucinations.
I mean, I could point you to a few economics journalists who would argue otherwise. Ed Zitron’s been screaming about the downfall of AI for the last two years straight.
I feel like you’re only reading every other sentence of what I say. In this instance, you seem to have fixated on this part, but sailed right past the part where I said that there’s zero evidence that anyone can actually produce hyper-advanced automation. I never argued that it was a rational decision to go all in on this possibility, and that’s entirely clear from my previous comments.
Ed Zitron is completely correct, but he’s also making exactly the same argument I am; that these people cannot actually achieve the technological revolution they are promising. That doesn’t change the fact that, if their wish granting genie was real, it would basically have unlimited upside. The problem is not how they’re pricing the outcome, the problem is how they’re evaluating the probability of achieving the outcome.
there’s zero evidence that anyone can actually produce hyper-advanced automation
There’s plenty of evidence (Waymo, for instance, or Xaiome) that companies can produce “good enough” advanced automation. Tesla’s just not the guy to make it happen. Same with AI. Very possible to produce useful tools (Alibaba’s Deepseek, Insilico Medicine’s Pharma.AI, etc) with LLMs. Sam Altman’s just not doing it.
Ed Zitron is completely correct, but he’s also making exactly the same argument I am; that these people cannot actually achieve the technological revolution they are promising.
Zitron’s heavily focused on the economics. Specifically, he’s fixated on the cost of running the American data centers relative to their prospective future revenues and profit horizons. He’s not even “anti-Tech” relatively speaking. He’s just reading balance sheets and doing basic math on depreciation rate of hardware to conclude the current business models won’t work.
This isn’t to say it can’t happen. It’s to say these businesses won’t make it happen.
The problem is not how they’re pricing the outcome
This is where we’re in disagreement. They’re pricing their outcomes totally wrong, even in their self-proclaimed “best case scenario”. That’s leading them toward malinvestment - heavy spending on hardware and brute force algorithms. Marginal investment on material applications and workflow integrations that benefit anyone.
This isn’t a probability problem where they can luck into a multi-trillion dollar windfall.
It’s very clear that at this point, insofar as there is any logic at all to the decision making of people investing in Tesla (and there’s very little evidence of that), they’re evaluating it as a software company, not a car company.
Nah, the logic to the decision is that other people are buying a lot of tesla stock and the price keeps going up. It’s very nearly a ponzi scheme. It has value completely detached to what the company is doing. It’s tulips, crypto, beanie babies. Most institutional investors realizes this, they also are trying to get in and get out without holding the bag.
It’s honestly quite unhinged when you look at how much each vehicle contributes to their market cap.
Remember WeWork? Lots of dumb people with money and if enough dumb people sustain their dumbness, it doesn’t really matter. Stock goes up.
Remember WeWork?
Boy howdy. You know Adam Neumann is still worth $2.2B?
Crazy how that happens.
Frustrating as hell. Losing a few mil means nothing to billions.
So if sales are down 50% or more in Europe, where are these cars sold?
For starters, SpaceX, which operates the Starlink satellite network, has purchased over 1,000 Tesla Cybertrucks as of late 2025.
Meanwhile, Police departments across the U.S. - particularly in California - are increasingly adopting Tesla vehicles (Model Y, Model 3, and Cybertruck) for patrol and administrative use. South Pasadena (CA) became the first U.S. city to switch its entire police patrol fleet to electric vehicles. Other departments, including Anaheim and Fremont, are using Tesla Model Ys for patrol. The Las Vegas Metro Police Department is introducing a fleet of 10 Cybertrucks for patrol and tactical use, specifically highlighting their safety features (bullet-resistant). A Texas school district created it’s own police force to be equipped with 9 Tesla cruisers two years back.
The Model Y is the new Crown Vic.
I’m sure this had nothing to do with it, yeah? Fuck the PedoNazis and the Swasticar company.
Ah, what a time to be alive: Pedo nazis are trying to take over the U.S. (and other parts of the world), and we‘re driving around in swasticars. Sounds like the plot of some 80‘s movie, but somehow it’s the reality we live in. And, somehow, where I live (central Europe), people are still voting for right-wing parties, seeing what is happening, seeing history repeating itself. This ignorance is infathomable to me, and I can only hope that either we will never suffer the consequences of what we‘re voting for or we learn it for real this time.
In fairness, none of those countries liked the Romans, so…
And as the Visigoths ransacked Rome, Emperor Honorius was heard yelling, “not my Cybertruck!“
We should get those numbers lower. Every Tesla is one too much.
Higher is better in this case. 100% preferably.
Trump could get them down 500% or even 700%
Well, I meant the number of sold cars. But yes, a 100% reduction would be great!
Any company with a functional board of directors would have fired the CEO yesterday.
This is not a legitimate business. Institutional investors should be running away from this company.
Tesla cars also fail the mandatory safety inspections in Europe at an alarming rate. That’s not a good look when buying a new car.
Luckily most his income is from the US government
Tja
I am sure this is what Rubio meant when he said that they “need Europe to help save the West” the other day. Right?
The FY2025 vs FY2024 numbers were plenty damning. Comparing January 2026 to previous Januaries is kinda silly given how much monthly fluctuation there is, and how few markets actually report on Monthly numbers
Don’t you know that Tesla will be building a Dyson Sphere together with SpaceX at a 100 Morbillion valuation? Who cares about cars?
They’re using their army of AI powered robots right?
Look. I know Norway be cool in this, but I’m actually kind of shocked at just 93%.
So what is it for the year then?
If I’m reading your comment correctly, if they have no delivery that month… Their “sales” would be pretty much 0.
So why the fuck are we cherry picking numbers unrepresentative of reality? This is some right wing type of shit.
Oh that’s why:
2024: 24,259 new Tesla cars registered in Norway. 2025: 34,285 new Tesla cars registered in Norway.
Got no clue on reliability of the source, but there’s 3 on top of my search seem to line up.
IIRC tax reasons made it very much smarter to buy a Tesla in Dec 2025 than in Jan 2026. Norway has had a drop in sales, but stuff like this skews the numbers.
“Gonna buy a nazi mobile yet?” “Nah, I have ethics.” “They will be more expensive next year though” Runs to the dealership
I think we underestimate how much the public cares… Reddit/Lemmy tend to be a very big echo chambers and we’ve seen several big events where online discource was completely at odds with reality. It still doesn’t explain how the increase. Because up until today, I believed Europe stopped buying them, but then the figures pedalled are fucking fake. Not sure how your place does it, but here the year of the car is on a reg plate… I see a lot of new teslas, far more than any other EV. I’ve seen couple of Renault 5s! Those are cool. But in the +40k mark? Just teslas. Despite allegedly MG making a Tesla killer a year ago, I’ve yet to see a single one.
Yeah, the numbers for Norway are when the cars are registered, which happens when they arrive at the dealer. Since Tesla ships their cars in large batches, the numbers are difficult to compare.
I’m (unfortunately) certain that most of the decline in sales will disappear once the first big delivery of 2026 comes ashore.
Looking at 24 vs 25, numbers don’t lie
2024: 24,259 new Tesla cars registered in Norway. 2025: 34,285 new Tesla cars registered in Norway. https://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2026/01/norway-full-year-2025-record-market-39-5-tesla-and-model-y-at-all-time-high/
That’s a good start.
