Everybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now.
Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China.
China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea.
Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future.
A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan becomes a recognised country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.
What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?
Yes! You literally said that the majority of responses should be excluded!
This might be hard to understand if you’re used to following American politics, but we don’t actually have to write off all the good, sane, popular options and chose between two bad options that nobody wants.
As I said before, this is the very definition of a false dichotomy.
If you call your decision to arbitrarily ignore evidence an “opinion” or “interpretation” one more time, I’m blocking you.
Yes, because your “opinion” is literally just excluding any responses you don’t agree with so that the ones you do agree with appear more popular than they are. As I have explained over and over to you.
Where? Quote me? I just gave my analysis. It’s a poll. It doesn’t actually have any specific legal application. I’m just giving you my opinion on it.
Right, it’s a hypothetical where Taiwan could freely choose between recognised statehood and unifying with China. I think they would choose to be a state. The status of their current system is not ideal for anyone - even if it doesn’t in practice harm anyone that much, but is maintained purely to keep the peace.
What evidence have I ignored? I don’t believe you can just look at those specific polls and say “Gee, I think the Taiwanese must be completely divided or overtly support the status quo purely because they prefer it to either unification or independence”. The “status quo” is a result of geopolitical realities that, for obvious reasons, is better than the geopolitical alternatives.
And I will just copy and paste my explanation each time.
I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.
I accept the poll results as they are, but I think fairly determine that more people in Taiwan would support statehood if they thought it a viable and safe option.
I have quoted this for you multiple times already:
“What we can see is that, eliminating the safe, friction-free option of status quo”
No it isn’t. There isn’t a hypothetical, there is the real world, and in the real world there are lots of options besides those two.
“What we can see is that, eliminating the safe, friction-free option of status quo”
Fucking hell! Why else would you support any course of geopolitical action than it being better than the geopolitical alternatives based on geopolitical realities!?
So what? And as I said before, if space aliens attacked, maybe they’d want unification for protection. You can’t just change the geopolitical realities, insert whatever you think their responses would be, and treat that as somehow being more true or more valid than their actual responses based on the actual geopolitical realities. This is complete nonsense.
That’s not me saying the poll should be ignored.
The definition of a hypothetical is that it’s a set of circumstances not present in the real world as it is now. Well done.
Right, I’m not saying they support it now but primarily because of the risk of inciting China into attacking them. If that was not a threat, they would likely support moving towards independence officially.
So you don’t even disagree with me here then. You think the hypothetical is outlandish (to the point where you compare China accepting their self-determination to a literal alien invasion) but don’t dispute my conclusions.
Just that the majority of the responses should be ignored, so that you can cherry pick the results you want.
I’m saying I don’t care what your mental model of Taiwanese people would say if the world were different than how it is, more than I care what the actual Taiwanese people do say in the world that actually exists.
How does your mental model of Taiwanese people in this hypothetical matter in any way?
I’ve explained my reasoning over and over.
Good for you. I’m saying that I suspect many more Taiwanese people would support and vote for official independence movements if they thought it was safe and viable to do so. This is not exactly an outlandish observation at all.
It doesn’t? It’s just a discussion.
Cool, I’ll stop wasting my time then.