Hundreds Gather at Entrance to Baghdad’s Green Zone to Protest Khamenei’s Killing. 'Cynical Murder': Putin Expresses Condolences to Iran's Pezeshkian Over Khamenei's Killing. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi Appointed to Council Acting in Khamenei's Place
In much the same way that the west did not protect Ukraine despite them voluntarily giving up their nukes. Iran likely sees that and makes it even more desirable to have nukes. Whether they are actively developing them, or that’s a pretext for an invasion that’s once again about oil is yet to be seen.
The Budapest memorandum of 1994 ensured that the US and UK would "Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they “should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used”
That happened. It’s a promise to bring the issue to the UN security council for a vote on action. Not a promise to invade any attacking country.
What also happened is that Russia, a seat on the security council, has the power to veto, and a conflicting interest here that the UN decided couldn’t possibly be a problem in the future.
I’m not saying we have done enough.
I am, however, saying that we have held up our end of the agreement, as written on paper.
As far as I’m concerned, my country is 1/3 of the reason they’re in this mess, so we need to step in and directly protect them at the bare minimum. Ukraine isn’t safe until their borders are restored to pre-2014, their infrastructure is repaired and improved, and they have enough to defend themselves from Russia AND the US. And also the government stooges of Russia get put to death for forcing their population to fight and die against an opponent who never wanted a fight to begin with.
UN decided couldn’t possibly be a problem in the future
Less that, and more that the existence of the Security Council with permanent seats and veto powers was a requirement to get the major powers to actually want to join.
Otherwise it’d have been the post-WW1 League of Nations, which pretty quickly fell apart. The US never even joined the League if I recall, they couldn’t get it through Congress despite it being President Woodrow Wilson’s own pet project.
Ultimately it’s easy to get a small power to join an org that basically serves to limit the options of individual countries by applying international law to them. It’s hard to get a large, powerful country to sign up for that same thing. The smaller country gains from joining, but the strong country actually weakens itself by joining.
Ukraine gave up their nukes and North Korea didn’t. Only one of those two is fighting a war of survival right now, so I wouldn’t blame Iran for looking to arm up… though I don’t think they’re ‘days away’ now anymore then the last half dozen times Bibi said they were.
First off there is support by European countries and the US for Ukraine, though I agree that the decision for giving up their nukes should have come with harder guarantees; second Ukraine wasn’t as connected to the EU or the US as Iran was to Russia.
Russia is in no way legally obliged to help, but we’ve already seen what happens if they are (with Armenia not officially withdrawn, but having stopped paying membership fees and not participating). Russia is projecting weakness and offers no incentive to align with them for other countries, their words in this matter are not only hollow and hypocritical, but also embarrassing because they presented themselves as a military power, yet they only talk once an actual military power attacks an any.
The fact that Zelensky is still alive after four years while Chamenei was killed in the first night of the war (both a result of intelligence) is a very hard reality check, regardless of what one thinks is right or legal, which my post isn’t supposed to claim anything about.
In much the same way that the west did not protect Ukraine despite them voluntarily giving up their nukes. Iran likely sees that and makes it even more desirable to have nukes. Whether they are actively developing them, or that’s a pretext for an invasion that’s once again about oil is yet to be seen.
The Budapest memorandum of 1994 ensured that the US and UK would "Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they “should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used”
That happened. It’s a promise to bring the issue to the UN security council for a vote on action. Not a promise to invade any attacking country.
What also happened is that Russia, a seat on the security council, has the power to veto, and a conflicting interest here that the UN decided couldn’t possibly be a problem in the future.
I’m not saying we have done enough.
I am, however, saying that we have held up our end of the agreement, as written on paper.
As far as I’m concerned, my country is 1/3 of the reason they’re in this mess, so we need to step in and directly protect them at the bare minimum. Ukraine isn’t safe until their borders are restored to pre-2014, their infrastructure is repaired and improved, and they have enough to defend themselves from Russia AND the US. And also the government stooges of Russia get put to death for forcing their population to fight and die against an opponent who never wanted a fight to begin with.
Less that, and more that the existence of the Security Council with permanent seats and veto powers was a requirement to get the major powers to actually want to join.
Otherwise it’d have been the post-WW1 League of Nations, which pretty quickly fell apart. The US never even joined the League if I recall, they couldn’t get it through Congress despite it being President Woodrow Wilson’s own pet project.
Ultimately it’s easy to get a small power to join an org that basically serves to limit the options of individual countries by applying international law to them. It’s hard to get a large, powerful country to sign up for that same thing. The smaller country gains from joining, but the strong country actually weakens itself by joining.
Ukraine gave up their nukes and North Korea didn’t. Only one of those two is fighting a war of survival right now, so I wouldn’t blame Iran for looking to arm up… though I don’t think they’re ‘days away’ now anymore then the last half dozen times Bibi said they were.
BUT THE WEST
First off there is support by European countries and the US for Ukraine, though I agree that the decision for giving up their nukes should have come with harder guarantees; second Ukraine wasn’t as connected to the EU or the US as Iran was to Russia.
Russia is in no way legally obliged to help, but we’ve already seen what happens if they are (with Armenia not officially withdrawn, but having stopped paying membership fees and not participating). Russia is projecting weakness and offers no incentive to align with them for other countries, their words in this matter are not only hollow and hypocritical, but also embarrassing because they presented themselves as a military power, yet they only talk once an actual military power attacks an any.
The fact that Zelensky is still alive after four years while Chamenei was killed in the first night of the war (both a result of intelligence) is a very hard reality check, regardless of what one thinks is right or legal, which my post isn’t supposed to claim anything about.