Iraq was nothing like Iran. Iraq is a small country, with a small population and a small military industry. Iran is far more advanced and capable, and it also had more time to prepare both strategically and technologically.
Iraq had mostly 70s tech, and the US did manage to break their army initially and topple the government. It was a disaster in strategic terms, but Iraqi regular army was no match for the US. This time around, Iran actually appears to have the upper hand. They’ve pushed out the US out of their bases across the region, destroyed billions if not trillions in the infrastructure that the US built up over many decades, and they’re eliminating American air power which was thought to be untouchable. This is truly unprecedented.
Your description of the differences between Iraq and Iran is good, as well as your explanation of the current situation.
However, it would change significantly if the U.S. decided to stop half-assing it. If the douchebags running the show decide they want to commit to a full-scale invasion with all available assets, I think you’d see a situation more similar to Iraq. We could absolutely roll Iran’s formal military if we committed to it.
But the subsequent occupation and attempt to maintain control would be doomed to the same failures as Iraq, Afghanistan, and all those before it, but on an even larger scale. All forward progress would stop once the Iranian military’s command and control falls. There’s no way we could win the asymmetric warfare that would follow, and I’m not at all saying we should even try. It’s all a pointless pile of shit that never should have been started.
That’s frankly delusional. Iran is a country of 90 million people. The US does not have the resources to, as you say, roll them. In fact, it’s pretty clear that US army isn’t even prepared for the realities of modern warfare like drones.
Unfortunately all it would take is a fast deployment tactic dedicating everything the US has. It comes down to raw numbers of immediately available manpower, aircraft, and munitions. The US has a stupid amount of these things at the ready.
It would be bloody and brutal and not certain, but I’d say the US would have a decent chance of overrunning the country.
Now this will only topple the government, then you get into a whole Afghanistan situation again. So I suppose it depends on what the definition of victory is. Could the US defeat Iran and occupy it? I think it’s likely, but the second they leave a new government that hates the US (rightfully) forms. Could they occupy indefinitely? Probably at a steep cost.
So I see a path for the US to overwhelm the Iranian military, but no real way for them to ever establish control of the region. I wouldn’t call that a win for the US for sure
A population of 90 million people is irrelevant to the question of military capability. It is absolutely relevant to a discussion about the insurgency and guerilla warfare that would inevitably follow the conventional war, but I think you and I already agree that there’s no way for the U.S. to win that (nor should we try).
But I don’t think the bits of relatively small damage Iran has done to U.S. forces in the region is convincing evidence that they’re capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities, even without going nuclear. Launch enough drones and missiles and a few will inevitably get through. But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries. Most importantly though, we have significantly more resources poured into everything that would follow the drones in a full-scale invasion.
And just to reiterate: I don’t think any of this is a good idea, and I don’t support any of it. But when you’re talking about the significance of damage and casualties caused by Iran, you can’t ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.
But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries.
The key is that due to our kleptocratic military industrial complex, we’re not able to produce these drones cheaply. Our military and its supply chains are built around producing very small numbers of very expensive weapons. We can’t even get Congress to pass a military right to repair. Contractors bilk the taxpayers for spare parts at a 10000% markup, and our system is too corrupt to end their thievery.
The hard truth is that our military isn’t actually built to win wars against competent peer or near-peer opponents. It’s built to line the pockets of defense contractors. Or, to use a car analogy, Iran is producing cheap $5k k trucks. Our military is running on $100,000 low margin, high profit SUVs.
Right you just made his point? Cost is relevant as the conflict continues. If the US committed everything it could likely overwhelm the government (probably leading to an Afghanistan 2), but the longer the conflict goes the scales tip in favor of Iran due to these costs.
The F35 for all purchasors, except Israel, but Including US military, requires Lockheed contractor repair services. No manual is provided with purchase.
And that’s why Iran could actually win this war. Iran doesn’t have to send an expeditionary force to lay siege to Washington DC to win this war. They just need to turtle in and hold out long enough for either US will or treasure to break.
Honestly, I think Bin Ladin will go down as the greatest strategic genius of the 21st century. For the cost of a handful of lives and a few hundred grand, he tricked a superpower into burning through trillions of dollars and thousands of soldiers. All he had to do was hit the superpower where it hurt the most - its sense of pride. And now, a quarter century later, we’re still stuck in Bin Ladin’s world, never having learned a damn thing. And we can’t keep this up forever. Eventually people will simply stop wanting to buy US treasuries, and the whole debt empire falls to pieces. Simply by forcing the US to spend itself into the poorhouse, Iran can defeat the US without ever striking a single target on American soil.
capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities
US strategic options made public are like 300 but instead of guarding a choke point, they rush into higher defense ratios.
But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries.
US is not among the 4 drone superpowers. Iran is one of these. US tech is old, expensive, and not high volume production.
you can’t ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.
The option they have threatened is mutual assured destruction of global economy. US has avoided Iran oil, and unsanctioned them during this war. It’s hard to see why they would escalate more, even if Israel gets to veto.
Unless that encourages the US to deploy everything to avoid that. We can’t even begin to predict what the idiot in charge will do.
If he goes that route the government of Iran would probably fall after a lot of death and then a long bloody, and ultimately unsuccessful, occupation would follow.
Hopefully he’s not dumb enough to try, and everyday the US doesn’t fully invade does tilt the scales in Iran’s favor
Worse. The US actually just doesn’t have enough troops to occupy Iran. We literally don’t have enough people in uniform. The US would need to institute a draft to raise the number of soldiers necessary.
I don’t think the US can even afford such an occupation financially. We’re already spending more on interest than we are on even the defense budget. Even if our leaders completely ignore popular will and the cost of lives. The US budget and debt can only be stretched so far.
If the douchebags running the show decide they want to commit to a full-scale invasion with all available assets,
If you’ve played RTS/starcraft, zerging one unit at a time after you have started the campaign, is not effective. Zerging as a verb also refers to suiciding cheap units to overcome a big objective, and US is not playing the Zerg side. Putting entirety of US military forces in near proximity of Iran is going to continue the reported hospital filling Iran strikes on those gatherings from this weekend.
The plan you speak of is completely different than surprise assassination of ayatollah followed by quick air campaign hoping for surrender. It is something that has to be in place before the air campaign, and not one unit at a time that has 2 week lag time before it is in position.
So we’re forgetting about Iraq then?
Iraq was nothing like Iran. Iraq is a small country, with a small population and a small military industry. Iran is far more advanced and capable, and it also had more time to prepare both strategically and technologically.
Iraq had mostly 70s tech, and the US did manage to break their army initially and topple the government. It was a disaster in strategic terms, but Iraqi regular army was no match for the US. This time around, Iran actually appears to have the upper hand. They’ve pushed out the US out of their bases across the region, destroyed billions if not trillions in the infrastructure that the US built up over many decades, and they’re eliminating American air power which was thought to be untouchable. This is truly unprecedented.
Your description of the differences between Iraq and Iran is good, as well as your explanation of the current situation.
However, it would change significantly if the U.S. decided to stop half-assing it. If the douchebags running the show decide they want to commit to a full-scale invasion with all available assets, I think you’d see a situation more similar to Iraq. We could absolutely roll Iran’s formal military if we committed to it.
But the subsequent occupation and attempt to maintain control would be doomed to the same failures as Iraq, Afghanistan, and all those before it, but on an even larger scale. All forward progress would stop once the Iranian military’s command and control falls. There’s no way we could win the asymmetric warfare that would follow, and I’m not at all saying we should even try. It’s all a pointless pile of shit that never should have been started.
That’s frankly delusional. Iran is a country of 90 million people. The US does not have the resources to, as you say, roll them. In fact, it’s pretty clear that US army isn’t even prepared for the realities of modern warfare like drones.
Unfortunately all it would take is a fast deployment tactic dedicating everything the US has. It comes down to raw numbers of immediately available manpower, aircraft, and munitions. The US has a stupid amount of these things at the ready.
It would be bloody and brutal and not certain, but I’d say the US would have a decent chance of overrunning the country.
Now this will only topple the government, then you get into a whole Afghanistan situation again. So I suppose it depends on what the definition of victory is. Could the US defeat Iran and occupy it? I think it’s likely, but the second they leave a new government that hates the US (rightfully) forms. Could they occupy indefinitely? Probably at a steep cost.
So I see a path for the US to overwhelm the Iranian military, but no real way for them to ever establish control of the region. I wouldn’t call that a win for the US for sure
A population of 90 million people is irrelevant to the question of military capability. It is absolutely relevant to a discussion about the insurgency and guerilla warfare that would inevitably follow the conventional war, but I think you and I already agree that there’s no way for the U.S. to win that (nor should we try).
But I don’t think the bits of relatively small damage Iran has done to U.S. forces in the region is convincing evidence that they’re capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities, even without going nuclear. Launch enough drones and missiles and a few will inevitably get through. But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries. Most importantly though, we have significantly more resources poured into everything that would follow the drones in a full-scale invasion.
And just to reiterate: I don’t think any of this is a good idea, and I don’t support any of it. But when you’re talking about the significance of damage and casualties caused by Iran, you can’t ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.
The key is that due to our kleptocratic military industrial complex, we’re not able to produce these drones cheaply. Our military and its supply chains are built around producing very small numbers of very expensive weapons. We can’t even get Congress to pass a military right to repair. Contractors bilk the taxpayers for spare parts at a 10000% markup, and our system is too corrupt to end their thievery.
The hard truth is that our military isn’t actually built to win wars against competent peer or near-peer opponents. It’s built to line the pockets of defense contractors. Or, to use a car analogy, Iran is producing cheap $5k k trucks. Our military is running on $100,000 low margin, high profit SUVs.
Right you just made his point? Cost is relevant as the conflict continues. If the US committed everything it could likely overwhelm the government (probably leading to an Afghanistan 2), but the longer the conflict goes the scales tip in favor of Iran due to these costs.
The F35 for all purchasors, except Israel, but Including US military, requires Lockheed contractor repair services. No manual is provided with purchase.
And that’s why Iran could actually win this war. Iran doesn’t have to send an expeditionary force to lay siege to Washington DC to win this war. They just need to turtle in and hold out long enough for either US will or treasure to break.
Honestly, I think Bin Ladin will go down as the greatest strategic genius of the 21st century. For the cost of a handful of lives and a few hundred grand, he tricked a superpower into burning through trillions of dollars and thousands of soldiers. All he had to do was hit the superpower where it hurt the most - its sense of pride. And now, a quarter century later, we’re still stuck in Bin Ladin’s world, never having learned a damn thing. And we can’t keep this up forever. Eventually people will simply stop wanting to buy US treasuries, and the whole debt empire falls to pieces. Simply by forcing the US to spend itself into the poorhouse, Iran can defeat the US without ever striking a single target on American soil.
US strategic options made public are like 300 but instead of guarding a choke point, they rush into higher defense ratios.
US is not among the 4 drone superpowers. Iran is one of these. US tech is old, expensive, and not high volume production.
The option they have threatened is mutual assured destruction of global economy. US has avoided Iran oil, and unsanctioned them during this war. It’s hard to see why they would escalate more, even if Israel gets to veto.
They don’t need to take on the full brunt of the US, they just need to keep the Strait closed to US-friendly traffic until the US economy collapses.
Unless that encourages the US to deploy everything to avoid that. We can’t even begin to predict what the idiot in charge will do.
If he goes that route the government of Iran would probably fall after a lot of death and then a long bloody, and ultimately unsuccessful, occupation would follow.
Hopefully he’s not dumb enough to try, and everyday the US doesn’t fully invade does tilt the scales in Iran’s favor
I don’t see any evidence to suggest that Tue US has superior military capability to Iran.
Worse. The US actually just doesn’t have enough troops to occupy Iran. We literally don’t have enough people in uniform. The US would need to institute a draft to raise the number of soldiers necessary.
I think that’s an eventuality.
I don’t think the US can even afford such an occupation financially. We’re already spending more on interest than we are on even the defense budget. Even if our leaders completely ignore popular will and the cost of lives. The US budget and debt can only be stretched so far.
I’m not sure any of that matters to the billionaire class. They have their bunkers and surveillance state.
If you’ve played RTS/starcraft, zerging one unit at a time after you have started the campaign, is not effective. Zerging as a verb also refers to suiciding cheap units to overcome a big objective, and US is not playing the Zerg side. Putting entirety of US military forces in near proximity of Iran is going to continue the reported hospital filling Iran strikes on those gatherings from this weekend.
The plan you speak of is completely different than surprise assassination of ayatollah followed by quick air campaign hoping for surrender. It is something that has to be in place before the air campaign, and not one unit at a time that has 2 week lag time before it is in position.