Copium: in 2016, Trump got 6% of black voters. In 2020, he got 8%. That’s a 33% increase in just 4 years. Hispanic votes went from 28% Trump to 38%, so a similar 35% increase. With another 35% increase, he’s on track to get a majority of Hispanic voters in 2024 and, I dunno, maybe 110% of black votes?
And yet, the the net-margin of victory widened between 2016 and 2020. Which speaks to fallacies of statistics and “doubling” of percentages of tiny numbers.
In spite of traditionally losing midterms because of lack of youth turnout, a 2022 midterm during terrible economic conditions still saw Democrats victorious over what was supposed to be a Red Wave.
Fair point on the Hispanic population, but: The key question when it comes to Hispanic voters is where that rise in support is. We know, for example, that Cuban-Americans in Florida overwhelmingly skew Republican; that doesn’t particularly change the outcome. We know, too, that Texas state rhetoric has made inroads with the Hispanic population there who’ve now opted to shut the door behind them. But again, we never expected nor need much from Texas either. So it comes down to states like Nevada to see the impact of the remaining subset of the Hispanic population which yes, will be close.
Copium: in 2016, Trump got 6% of black voters. In 2020, he got 8%. That’s a 33% increase in just 4 years. Hispanic votes went from 28% Trump to 38%, so a similar 35% increase. With another 35% increase, he’s on track to get a majority of Hispanic voters in 2024 and, I dunno, maybe 110% of black votes?
And yet, the the net-margin of victory widened between 2016 and 2020. Which speaks to fallacies of statistics and “doubling” of percentages of tiny numbers.
In spite of traditionally losing midterms because of lack of youth turnout, a 2022 midterm during terrible economic conditions still saw Democrats victorious over what was supposed to be a Red Wave.
Fair point on the Hispanic population, but: The key question when it comes to Hispanic voters is where that rise in support is. We know, for example, that Cuban-Americans in Florida overwhelmingly skew Republican; that doesn’t particularly change the outcome. We know, too, that Texas state rhetoric has made inroads with the Hispanic population there who’ve now opted to shut the door behind them. But again, we never expected nor need much from Texas either. So it comes down to states like Nevada to see the impact of the remaining subset of the Hispanic population which yes, will be close.