Donald Trump has quietly wound down his presidential campaign in states he was targeting just six weeks ago amid polling evidence showing that Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential race has put them out of reach and narrowed his path to the White House.
The Republican presidential nominee’s campaign has diverted resources away from Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire – states Trump was boasting he could win while Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate – to focus instead on a small number of battleground states.
Money is being poured into the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which were all carried by Biden in 2020 and are seen as vital to the outcome of November’s election.
I love that the election is decided by 3 states containing less than 10% of the population
Pennsylvania: 13M
Wisconsin: 6M
Michigan: 10M
Total US: 333M
29/333 = 8.7%
I mean, if you’re going to use that metric, you might as well go smaller, because a lot of people in those states have already made up their mind. It’s only voters who might be willing to choose or adjust their vote that are in play.
Only the states that are still undecided enough to tip, and within those, only the voters whose position is still undecided enough to potentially tip.
Isn’t it as much about showing up to vote than about changing minds who to vote for?
Yeah. Not unreasonable to say maybe 1% of registered voters are in play, so maybe 200,00 people or so.
Less than that in the 2000 election even if Gore wasn’t fucked over by SCOTUS.
Trump won Michigan by less then 10,000 votes in 2016. Tightest presidential outcome in the states history.
And that was after Hillary both ignored and insulted the rust belt.
Well, on average each state has 2% of the population. So, you could say any state with more than 6m people represents an above average population
That’s like saying the first 94 meters of a 100 meter race don’t matter because the last 6 meters decide the winner. If you don’t finish the last 6 meters ahead, you’ve lost.
Zeno’s paradox in political format.
That’s not exactly the best comparison though because you have to run all 100 meters in the foot race, but in the presidential race you basically don’t have to run at all in the majority of states.
That analogy doesn’t work because in these models it’s a straight tie for those 94 meters and it’s the last 6 meters that are left. If the polling data is accurate (big if of course), then the other 47 states cancel each other out in EC votes, so it’s down to these 3.
I think you might not understand how analogies work.
Foot races, at the professional level, decided by fractions of a second…
It’s not but ok
Those 3 states are huge, but the other swing states are definitely still a factor. If Harris wins all 3 Blue Wall states, she very likely will win the presidency. However, if she doesn’t win all 3, then either candidate’s victory will likely be decided by the other swing states - Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.
It’s being decided by all the states. Swing states are simply the ones that pollsters can’t accurately predict.