The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”

"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.”

  • Makeitstop@lemmy.worldEnglish
    32·
    16 days ago

    Harris holds on to the support of nearly all Democrats, with 97% saying they will support her and 0% saying they will support Trump.

    But she also gets 5% of Republicans who say they will vote for her over Trump. Trump holds 89% of Republicans.

    The poll shows a small universe of people who say they previously supported Trump and have now switched their vote to someone else.

    Among those not supporting Trump, 16% say there was a time when they supported him, while 81% say they have never supported him. Another 3% are not sure.

    This is a factor that very few polls ever look for. There are so many reasons to oppose Trump which transcend partisan politics. We’ve had so many Republicans endorse Harris, but you don’t see many polls looking for the voters that are making the same jump.

    The implications are huge. Every voter that switches from Trump to Harris is a net gain of 2 votes. And if they are still registered Republicans, any early voting data will likely be interpreted with them in the Trump column until they are actually counted. And of course, any voter turnout efforts paid for by the Trump campaign will likely be turning these people out as well, which is just delightful.

    We’ll see how accurate this is on Tuesday. But if Iowa really does go blue, it seems likely that it won’t be the only surprise that night.

    • kescusay@lemmy.world
      22·
      16 days ago

      If Iowa goes blue, then the election overall is very likely going to be a landslide for Harris.

      • Rhaedas@fedia.io
        24·
        16 days ago

        Vote anyway if anyone hasn’t yet. Because no matter if it’s close, a few points, or a sweep Trump is already planning on calling it rigged (he already has) and rallying his supporters to do who knows what. It’s going to be a long few months, maybe more.

        Also, don’t forget that voting just gets a preferred candidate into office, you still have to remind and pressure them on topics you feel important, regularly. I think this is really where America fails as a representative democracy, most people don’t follow up on what they were all hyped up about during an election.

        • Billiam@lemmy.world
          2·
          15 days ago

          Vote anyway if anyone hasn’t yet. Because no matter if it’s close, a few points, or a sweep Trump is already planning on calling it rigged (he already has) and rallying his supporters to do who knows what. It’s going to be a long few months, maybe more.

          The larger Harris’ margin is, the harder it will be for the GOP to steal. If Trump loses a state by 5 votes, it’d be easy to “find” five “irregular” votes and discard them. If Trump loses a state by 500,000 votes… they’re not gonna find an excuse to toss that many. Nobody outside the 30% deplorable contingent would believe that for a second.