Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.
Betting data? Is that like a turn off phrase or are people actually betting on elections
People bet on elections.
And it’s pretty interesting data when it comes to elections as it’s pretty much a live opinion poll if you track the odds over time—as most modern betting companies will adjust the odds automatically based on how people are betting
Eh, it’s often wildly out of touch with reality. It’d be an opinion poll if people were objectively betting solely to try to earn the maximum payout, but it goes off the rail all the time with wishful thinking and intentional manipulation.
Doesn’t the bookie need to have a decent approximation of the actual odds to avoid paying out more than they take in? Or are the margins just so big that it doesn’t matter?
The bookie balances the odds according to how much money is coming in on each side. The bookie’s goal is to make money on the vig no matter what the outcome is.
Economists think these betting markets are better at predicting results than regular opinion polls because people have to risk their real money to participate.
…ignoring the fact that many people who bet regularly are actually just addicted to it
Mate… no offense but Americans are ludopats, there is even a city which never sleeps with betting games all night long… viva Las Vegas!!
No no no. You don’t GET IT. You have to live the American lifestyle, and THEN you’ll understand how everything we say and do makes perfect sense.
Here. Tell ya what. Here’s a gun, 40lbs of sugar and high fructuse corn syrup, and a liter of whiskey. This is breakfast. Eat it all. Yes, even the gun. The gun is made of chocolate only made to train your brain from a young brain that guns are happy times, and assosiate them with the release of positive endorphins to brainwashing you into having a positive assosiation with guns. Also unrelated here’s a pack of cigerrettes. They are also candy…or chalk…whatever. Pick one.
After lunch, once your body is pumped up with alcohol, sugar, and bad choices, we’ll give you a gun! Ha ha ha, just kidding. We’ll give you acess to MANY guns!!! You can’t have just one silly!!! It’s just like Petey the handgun tells us as kids, “Always buy more guns”.
Once you have all of that mastered, we’ll discuss how the metric system is stupid, and we’ll instead be using this banana to measure scale in pictures posted on the internet.
And finally, now that you’re ready for the advsnced topics, it’s time to talk about politics. Remember, YOUR opinion is the only one who matters, and everyone who disagrees is clearly a nutjob trying to tear this country apart! THATS why we need so many guns…because we all know that a civil war is coming, and so we need to prepare by arming ourselves like a one man army.
Oh, you thought I was engaging in satirical absurdist humor? No. This is real life in America…and I didn’t bring up religion yet!
Yes, it’s somewhat popular. At least it’s available at some bookies, I don’t know hay many people actually bet on it
Didnt read the article yet but there are these things called “prediction markets” where people bet (usually with play money but sometimes real money) on real world events like politic decisions, elections, wars, but also very small or individual things. Its sort of a stock market for predicting real world events and it tends to be much better than most other systems at predicting stuff.
For example this one was about Biden dropping out. https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n?r=QW5kcmV3Rw
From the image … I’m not sure that’s such a great predictor. Over all of the time from the debate it seems like the “market” was leaning “yes” for most of the time, until about the time basically all of the mainstream media was pretty certain it was going to happen (where it seemed pretty clear that plenty of leaks were occurring).
I mean maybe this reflects the actual reality and it was in the air this much … but either way I don’t think this “market” knew more than the mainstream media was telling us.
Yeah i think trying to predict election stuff is a waste of time because all the decision making is super irrational. I dont really seriously use it for anything but its interesting to look at from time to time.
but either way I don’t think this “market” knew more than the mainstream media was telling us.
No, but it is a culmination of all the available public information (and some private information you won’t find elsewhere) in a single metric. If you read a single article you would assume there is either a 100% Biden drops out or a 0% chance - if you read every single news article in existence, aggregated all social media buzz, polls, etc, into a statistical likelihood, you would likely come out with a number that closely matches the odds.
Biden was only going to drop out once, so you can’t say how closely these odds matched the actual likelihood on this specific measure, but if you analyze hundreds of predictive markets like this, the implied odds pretty strongly correlate with the actual binomial outcomes
Shit’s just getting started.
The betting relies on the polls, which are useless for another week or so.
I’m over here like “It’s been a day. Calm the fuck down.”
It may take a week or more to start getting meaningful polls. One very big problem is that all pollsters correct the sample to match their idea of the electorate. So if the pollster believes 15% of the electorate will be young women and in the sample only 13% are young women, it will count every young women in the sample as 15/13 of a person. So, it’s not only new polling, which is going on now, but the models themselves that change. Betting markets use these as baselines to establish odds.
I think people who place bets on politicians are not a great representation of the whole population. Biden was behind Trump by a lot too.
Betting markets also work based on available information.
Harris hasn’t really started campaigning but the betting markets are getting money down for her and as such adjust the odds.
I also want to point out that these articles also act as an advertisement for the betting markets.
I don’t expect anyone to stop posting about them but this is one way they gain business - getting stories published during notable events to bring in the suckers.
These people aren’t placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.
If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%
This is the best summary I could come up with:
As Joe Biden withdraws from the 2024 US presidential race and Kamala Harris gains support from prominent Democrats, data from Betfair Exchange indicates that her odds are improving.
The vice president still faces a significant challenge to surpass Donald Trump, however, who has maintained strong performance over nearly the past year.
At the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention, just days after Mr Trump’s assassination attempt, his chances stood at 69%.
However, this did not significantly dent his lead, likely due to growing concerns about Mr Biden’s fitness to remain in office, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News.
We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information.
The original article contains 533 words, the summary contains 136 words. Saved 74%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
