As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don’t have national elections.
But let’s see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we’ll need a re-run in a week or two. I’m also adding some states people have been talking about.
Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.
Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.
Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.
The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris’ race to lose there.
Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let’s plot it on the map:
Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She’s 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.
Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he’s at 265. NC + AZ he’s at 262.
This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.
deleted by creator
I’ll be sitting up all night on November 5th with spreadsheets. :)
If you have a YT or Twitch stream, please share.
LOL, I seriously doubt OnlyFans is down for that sweet spreadsheet action, but you never know!
Depends what’s spread on the sheets
That’s my fetish. Don’t kink shame!
🤮 I’m going to the mountains far from any signal save short wave radio.
You’re the hero we need!
Hero now, but man, people hated it when the numbers were down…
Using the same methodology, here’s where Harris started just a month ago:
Thanks a lot for the detailed breakdown.
Excellent summarization. 🍻
If this holds true, which is unlikely without strong voter turnout, then Harris just needs PA or NC.
As a New Mexican, those polls had to have been erroneous. There’s no way in hell the state would have turned red, not for Trump. The last time our state was red in the general election was 2004, and before that, 1988. You all don’t have to worry about us, but I will gladly attend a Harris/Walz rally here.
3% of Democrats support Trump?
WTF? Who? How?Usually people that are either lying about being Democrats, or people very much stuck on a single issue and have decided that “The establishment” is wrong (yet, still, identifying as a Democrat).
🧠🪱
TIL how to shorten RFK down to two emojis.
Don’t believe the naysayers. No matter which state you are in, your vote is important. Extreme Conservatives have been taking over school boards and imposing their agenda on kids.
Offices like Sheriff, Coroner, Secretary of State, Lt Governor, State Representatives, City and County Councils etc. are all important.
Every Vote Counts!!!
And every cunt votes, so do it too!
Thank you for making me laugh today.
Definitely agree with this. As someone from Oregon where my vote doesn’t really matter on the national elections I make sure to vote still to influence local elections. Only problem with those is that finding info on the candidates can be hard or sometimes there is only one candidate for a position.
I’m lazy so I tend to look up endorsements from unions
Oregonians also get a voters guide with statements from candidates and for/against statements for ballot measures. It is useful in combination with other sources of information. And we do entirely vote by mail, so we have time to do a little research.
That’s a good idea. I usually look to see who the Oregon Progressive Party endorses but unions would probably be good to look at too.
Coroner??? As in the person who notes that people are dead??? That’s an elected position? What? Why? How can that even possibly be political? “This person has gone red but they should have gone blue instead. Make them get back up and start walking around until they do dying right!”; “Cause of death: Being a gorram <insult of choice>!”; “You’re not allowed to die, we’ve had too many deaths this week and I won’t get elected again if you do. Stop pretending to be cold and stiff!”. What?
The coroner could rule on whether a death is suspicious or not. Like if a brown person dies in custody, the coroner may or may not chock it up to “natural causes” depending on their political leanings.
This is just wild conjecture on my part – I don’t think I get to vote for coroner locally – but I could definitely see that happening.
Polls. Don’t. Matter. Fucking. Vote.
Polls are a useful tool for gauging popular opinion at a given moment, and can help politicians make rational judgements during a campaign.
Biden wouldn’t have dropped out if people ignored polling.
the polls lie; their methodology is not good enough to actually get the temp of thjngs. Drag everyone you know to the polls.
Even if the polls were accurate something as simple as rain on election day can throw them off.
Go fucking vote
Even if they accurately predict the popular vote, doesn’t do anything since the electoral college is what matters, and we already know that republican candidate is advantaged for electoral college votes to overcome a significantly more popular candidate.
but I read on the website kamala is 7 pints is behind i hat andtah to hasaldk for dieajhnsnsd nasd sad—— -s -s s -sad-f-said ja- a-
CNN IS REPORTINN GKALA+ is -10 poi arts behind Trimo is this incapable???
Everyone here is right about this still being neck and neck.
That said, let’s also take 2 seconds to acknowledge that Harris has kind of been killing it over the last 3-4 weeks. She took over that campaign apparatus and moved with urgency, precision, and polish. Moreover, she’s not taking her opponent’s bate.
Harris has been absolutely stellar, I thought she was OK before, but she has clearly exceeded my expectations.
PS: I think that last word should probably be “bait” not “bate”.
Makes me wonder if Biden maybe knew he might drop out earlier than he actually did and he was silently prepping her to be ready to go full force.
He, his family, his cabinet, and the entire Dem leadership knew the day after his debate. Everything else was obfuscation so they didn’t send public perception of the party into a tail spin while they circled the wagons. All the talk of “everyone still supports Biden 100%” was BS and anyone paying attention knew it.
That’s what I was thinking as well.
She’s deflated considerably since the Convention.
Refusing to allow Palestinian-American to speak and “The most lethal military” has and will continue to cost her with the antiwar and posesses basic human decency demographic.
She might still win. But historically moving to the right has only lost layup elections for democrats.
I mean I think among the majority of people she came out of the convention strong. But yeah as a progressive her speech definitely deflated me, still gonna vote but disappointed overall.
Trying to appeal to people that spend most of the day on the internet trying to find a reason not to vote isn’t a winning strategy.
If you’re fine with Trump winning, you don’t actually care about Palestinians, you only care about putting on a performance about caring about Palestinians for an internet audience. There’s no way for a political campaign to have success by appealing to people that have this level of internet brained irrationality.
The “not committed” people decided to remove themselves from the equation, which has resulted in their concerns not being a factor in this election. If the point is to only express anger on the internet (and not accomplish any change) then congratulations, you have someone else to be angry on the internet over. Like most anger on the internet it will be heavily monetized and make some people a lot of money. But they aren’t ever going to have success trying to appease people that profit off of expressing anger. Whatever they do won’t be good enough because there’s a profit motive to this anger.
As unlikely as it is cuz chump is historically shit. But possible that Harris loses. Should that happen. I hope you remember this post.
Because it woulda been real easy to turn this coinflip into a landslide. Let a genocide victim speak at the DNC and use the Lehey Law to embargo the Occupation. Cut off the bombs.
That’s it. Democrats would have locked in both houses and the presidency for a generation or more. Instead of taking a victory lap right now you’re here fingerwagging like the good little liberal you are.
Does AIPAC give you headpats or something? I know they’re not paying you. I’m not a liberal. So I’m not dumb enough to believe that. But what do you get out of being a volunteer amateur propagandist for a genocidal bloodthirsty empire?
Don’t answer that. I don’t actually care. My start and finish line is genocide. If you support it in any way, I dont support you under any circumstances. Nothing else matters. Because that’s the cliff of morality. If you’re OK with it anywhere happening to anyone youd be ok with it here, happening to your neighbors. And that makes you less than human and not worth my time. (You owe me $5 for this reality check btw)
As unlikely as it is cuz chump is historically shit. But possible that Harris loses. Should that happen. I hope you remember this post.
Why? Because a small group of people that never would’ve voted for Harris because of her association with “Genocide Joe” wound up not voting for Harris?
Does AIPAC give you headpats or something?
And there it is: An antisemitic conspiracy theory. You can’t even have a conversation with someone on the issue without devolving to to the “Jewish puppet master” conspiracies within three replies. Yeah I’m sure a woman married to a Jew was going to be able get your vote somehow.
Antisemitism is my start and finish line. Obviously the conflict in Gaza is just something you’re using to be able to give cover for your antisemitic beliefs. You don’t care about Palestinians. You just hate Jews.
And that makes you less than human and not worth my time.
Dehumanizing me now too? Wow you’re speed-running all the fascist boxes here aren’t you?
Typical liberal.
Well. Enjoy the election. I’ll be enjoying the tiktoks and shitposts no matter which liberal wins.
We can check off hates democracy on your fascist bingo card.
I very much enjoy democracy. There’s just no place for someone with a soul in this one.
I don’t understand your logic here. Declaring yourself “uncommitted” is the only leverage you have over a party that wants your vote. Telling them “I’m gonna vote for you but I won’t like it!” sounds the exact same to them as “I’m gonna vote for you and I love you!”. Once they have your vote guaranteed, they no longer have to address your concerns. This movement is targeting democrats because they are perceived as more susceptible to this kind of pressure (anti genocide). However, the pressure has to be applied to have a chance of success.
It’s foreign policy. Israel and Palestine was the most complex foreign policy issues in the world before October 7. Now it’s even worse. Joe Biden is working hard on a ceasefire. But he’s trying to get Netanyahu (who’s an incompetent fraudster not all that different from Trump) to make an agreement with Hamas which just made the architect of October 7 their leader. Most people understand this isn’t something that’s going to be easy.
But to the “uncommitted” he’s “Genocide Joe” and he’s complicit in war crimes. Companies that do any business in Israel? Also complicit. Universities that do business with companies that do business in Israel? Also complicit. I saw an article the other day that was saying Radiohead is somehow complicit for playing a gig in Israel a decade ago.
So you’re telling me that there’s something Kamala Harris (who is Vice President in Joe Biden’s administration) can do that will not make her complicit from the perspective of the “Genocide Joe” crowd? This is the problem when activists let their emotions run wild to the extent they no longer capable of any kind of compromise. There is nothing anyone can do to appease the most vocal in that group. There are many subs on this site where you get insta-banned if you deviate from the “Genocide Joe” rhetoric for even a second. People in this crowd don’t want to understand any nuance or hear anything other then expression of hatred towards Israel. The pro-Palestine crowd has become such an impenetrable bubble that Harris is more likely to convince every single MAGA to vote for her before she gets people in the pro-Palestine bubble to vote for her.
That movement has gone too far down a path of hatred to be able to engage in a positive way. It’s to the point now that I don’t feel like the goal is to actually help Palestinians, but it now seems to be mostly about hating Israel and playing a game degrees of separation from Israel to determine if someone is with the “evil Israelis”.
Bottom line, Kamala Harris isn’t going to get many votes from the “Genocide Joe” crowd no matter what she does.
But take heart, none of these protests ever meant anything anyway. Just not how foreign policy works. The most likely scenario is the “Genocide Joe” you hate will eventually bring an end to the conflict, which is exactly what would’ve happened without the protests. It’s only if Trump wins and Biden isn’t able to negotiate a ceasefire before Trump takes office will your protest have had an effect. And that effect will be an extreme negative for Palestinians. Nothing good ever comes from hatred and nothing good will come for Palestinians by hating Israel and Joe Biden and everyone associated with them. But likely Harris will win without you and your protest will have accomplished nothing, which is better than the alternative where your protest made things worse for Palestinians.
Jesus fuck. Talk less and listen more.
I’ve read you comment. Unfortunately your two sentences were not influential in any way.
Influential enough for you to spend a half an hour barfing up a bunch mostly irrelevant bullshit.
Trump’s 'bate?
I’m pretty confident he’s not physically capable of that anymore.
As we know from Gore and Clinton, national numbers mean jack shit. Vote!
Clinton especially. That +8 margin of victory made Dems complacent.
If we turn out for Harris the same way we did for Biden on 2020, for the exact same reasons, we’ll win handedly. It wouldn’t even be close.
Turn out and vote. Make it a hate vote if you must. Remember the four terrible years under Trump the Traitor and consider him within striking distance of the oval office once again.
Exactly. Don’t get complacent! Every vote is needed and matters.
I’d say ALL polling numbers mean jack shit, except for the set we get in November that’s run by the States. Thus we must make sure our voices are heard in THAT poll, which means…VOTE!
Vote and volunteer to give rides to those that wouldn’t be able to vote without it. (if you can)
Only matters if you live in one of the like 7 swing states that matter, otherwise just vote for whomever you want.
If you get enough people from the biggest party—the doesn’t vote party—to vote with you, then you also live in a swing state.
If Trump gets the Presidency, you still can affect national level politics by voting in your Representative and Senator.
If Democrats hold Senate and House, they can protect us more from Trump. Every state matters, because every state has 2 Senators at a minimum (and Senators are very, very powerful). Senators are state-wide and therefore immune to any gerrymandering (only House Members have the Gerrymandering problem)
There’s also a slew of other local elections that can be equally, if not more important than national congressional races. A great deal of the GOP’s ability to put a stranglehold on progress has been from their fairly dedicated takeover of statehouses and local elections. We need to have an even greater level of determination when it comes to showing up to vote. Every. Single. Election.
There are 100 senators.
66 are not on the ballot in 2024.
Of the 34 remaining, 23 are safe and 2 are likely.
That leaves 9 seats. 7 are leaning one way or the other.
2 are toss ups, Ohio and Montana. Vote if live there. Probably even the leaning 7. But the rest…?As an aside, if all the leans break the way they are leaning, Dems have to hold the two toss ups to have a 50-50 Senate.
I plan to vote in Montana. I’ll do you that favor if you do me the favor of not talking this way. Every vote matters in every election in every state. The only reason what you’re saying is somewhat true is because people believe it’s true. Don’t perpetuate that idea.
I don’t follow.
A vote cast for an unopposed candidate is a vote that doesn’t matter, right?
I don’t think so. There’s never only unopposed candidates on a ballot.
That said, even if you were correct, who does it help to point that out?
Many down ballot positions are unopposed where I live. Of course, I think you only are talking about national seats.
The utility, then, is to note that safe seats operate similarly to unopposed seats especially when it comes to funding by national parties.
Smiling Trump is so weird lmao.
It’s a whole new thing for him.
I think those pictures of him with his eyes sqinting and his mouth stretched out like a frog were supposed to be a smile, but I always registered it as “self-satisfaction” rather than “joyfullness” which I’m convinced he’s wholly incapable of.
I would not feel comfortable we were safe from the disaster of a second Trump term even if Harris was up by 70 points!
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https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-takes-7-point-lead-over-donald-trump-national-poll-1943901
Fuck off, bot. Remove this bot
I’m working on a counter bot plus some heavy artillery that will show the weakness of activitypub to our great enjoyment. Tankies gonna be ripping mad!
Remember to still vote. Even if it’s accurate, the GoP is trying to prep as many cheats as possible so they can kick it to the supreme court. You need overwhelming numbers - Enough that even just 3 of the Republican Supreme Court members say the results are valid out of fear of retaliation
The fake news polling is rigged - Vote!
Yep, they are trying to lull us.
doesn’t matter. Some dipshit from Pennsylvania is more important than 100 Californians.
Down ballot candidates still matter. There are several tossup districts in CA for congressional seats. Vote like hell!!!
Pennsylvania is a large state, a vote there is barely worth more than a vote in California.
https://medium.com/practical-coding/whats-my-vote-worth-3ca2585b5d51
This doesn’t take into account that it’s a swing state
My point isn’t about how many people there are to senators ratio. My point is that Pennsylvania is a swing state and California is going to go to the dems by 3 million votes or whatever. Our system makes it so that each additional vote in CA past the halfway mark is completely useless.
In a hypothetical, it is like 10 people live in CA, and 10 live in Pen. Pen goes for the Ds by 6-4 and CA 9-1. The extra votes in CA mean nothing. They should mean something. But they don’t. So the popular vote is not very useful for determining outcomes for dems because California is so big and the dems win it very easily.
The extra votes in PA beyond the magical single winning vote are meaningless too by that logic. And there are paths to victory for both candidates that don’t involve PA, so you don’t really know who got to cast the special winning vote until afterwards. The “swing states” only exist because of states like CA that vote more predictably. The EC is dogshit because of the disproportionate voting power and because the winner takes all at the state level (usually), not because of some post hoc analysis.
More than 40 million Californians, you mean. Our vote effectively means nothing nationally.
Convention bounce and it hasn’t finished yet. A convention bounce can disappear with time…
Next week’s polling will be interesting, with the bounce but also The Silence of the Worm. Then we have debates over the next few weeks, and polls should really solidify into something worthy of attention.
The DNC went exceptionally well, continuing momentum, massively energetic and positive, and seems to have impressed the necessary people (at least compared with the unwatchable RNC). I would expect a noticeable bounce until some big new event, which T**** will be desperate for…
Bounces happen after conventions. Trump had one too, but it was smaller and destroyed by the switch of Biden/Harris.
But is delicuous with basil!
*thyme
