- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- news@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- news@lemmy.world
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I believe, in this election, with two unfavorable candidates, everything is already baked in. There’s very little to move the needle at this point.
Biden screws the pooch during a debate? Polls still show him leading by a point or two, but within the margin of error. Trump gets nearly assassinated? Same, Biden leading by a not statistically significant number.
This election is going to be a squeaker, and we’re going to see unrest either way. We need a blowout to avoid that, and it’s not happening.
Edit: last poll I read had Biden leading. Either way doesn’t change what I said.
Is Biden shown leading? I only see doom and gloom posted here. Agreed on the need for a blowout, though. We need to show the world we categorically denounce the far right, and that looks unlikely even if Biden wins.
Biden is absolutely not leading. State polling has him behind in every swing state. Nate Silver’s model gives Biden a 30% chance of winning, slightly down from the debate.
Unfortunately I see a 0% chance of Biden winning…
Democrats need polls to be overwhelmingly in their favor for us to just squeeze by. Being as low as we are should be taken as “we’re like 6x worse than what polls currently show.”
…yet
To hear the slobbering bothsidering “liberal media” (and forget about the patently ridiculous far right wing outlets) his win was a fait accompli after the shooting.
You mean the media and pundits were wrong? Shocker.
Because literally, more than half the country wishes he didn’t miss.
And exactly half of Tenacious D, apparently
On record. Off record, we all know he feels about the racist rapist with 34 felonies that wants to be a dictator and end democracy.
Wait, what?
Edit: disregard, I was behind on the news apparently
Rage Kage said something dumb about it and now Jaybles doesn’t want to work with him anymore
KG solo tour when
I don’t think that’s what went down, I think they’re just doing PR damage control behind closed doors. I don’t think this has actually effected their relationship. Jack Black is definitely not a supporter of trump at least.
Damn that’s sad
Damn, I didn’t know Jack Black was a piece of shit like that.
Jablinski is a piece of shit for trying to maintain their PR by denouncing a statement that could be interpreted as a call to violence?
“trump is literally the next Hitler guys”
“great so we don’t even need a time machine”
“oh not like that though”
👀
Look I’m not saying that it’s a good thing that the shot missed. I’m just saying that it’s understandable how someone might want to not say the quiet part out loud when it doesn’t make a tangible difference on who ends up being president come January, but does make a tangible difference on how much money they make.
Publicly calling for violence against the man who might be a dictator of the country you live in this time next year isn’t exactly the safest play either, long-term.
We need to keep Trump out of the white house, but advocating for that “by any means necessary” is a dangerous play, no matter how much you personally agree with the people making such statements.
Because it doesn’t change anything.
We need to worry about motivation, not polls. Very few people will change their minds about the candidates, but many of them will change their minds about voting. Some percentage of likely voters will always stay home. That percentage is going to be much lower for people whose candidate survived an assassination attempt.
Polls don’t mean shit until right before an election…and even then they’re suspect.
They’re still talking about his rigged 2020 was rigged.
Trump wanted investigations into 2016, and he won!
100% 2024… RIGGED!
Yes, they’ll say it was rigged no matter what. What matters is who actually ends up in office on Jan. 20th.
Their model showed that it was a VERY close race and Trump had a 1 in 4 chance of winning.
That doesn’t mean “Clinton is guaranteed to win.” It means, it’s a 4 sided die roll, and Trump had a side.
She had a bigger lead than mr 34 felonies has right now. I don’t really care what polls say because they’re a load of shit. VOTE. If everyone votes, we won’t have any republikkklowns in office.
Yup, it was within the probability. What it shows is that a lot of people who voted for Trump didn’t say they were when polled.
IMHO, it mostly shows that most people don’t actually understand statistics and polling.
If you have two candidates that are neck and neck, and are split by a percent that is close to the margin of error, then things can go either way depending on who is able to turnout votes on Election Day.
Polls are bullshit anyway.
Polls have been remarkably accurate in the last few election cycles.
The “polls are wrong” talking point is a convenient way for politicians to ignore the will of the people. Trump has done this for a long time, and recently Biden has taken up this practice to pretend that the “Real Americans” think he is fit to be president for another 4 years.
So please don’t repeat this talking point, or at least read a bit into historical accuracy of polls before you declare them bullshit.
Guess I’m being overly optimistic thinking that Trump would be supported at all, let alone have a lead. Regardless of how shit a candidate Biden is, Trump is a fucking disgrace and a criminal among a whole other list of garbage. Appreciate you taking the time to call out my random comment on Lemmy.
Polls being wrong claim is more about how election results seem to be different than poll results. Special elections points to that.
Polls have a margin of error and election results have generally been within the 80% confidence interval 80% of the time.
It is true that when there are less polls (like in special elections) it’s harder to get an understanding of the state of the race.
Maybe his polls will actually start going down because people are afraid he has a traumatic brain injury. Look at the blood coming out of his head. That plus possible PTSD is very understandable.
It’s unfortunate, but maybe he should step down so Republicans can run someone else. Trump already had some mental problems and a bullet to the head doesn’t help. Blood coming from his head or his wherever isn’t good.
Don’t you think he looks tired?
As much as I want this to be true, this is straight up misinformation at this moment.
The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)
Under “In this tracker”
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
I don’t see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
It’s also strange that the number of participants doesn’t match up. Newsweek says 2,045 but your link says 2,203. Of course we would know what the issue is if they left a link to the poll rather than a vague description.
It seems like you’re right though and this is bullshit.
He should just get convicted again. That worked out well for him the last time.
He did get a rousing endorsement from the Nashville Nazis tho which is all he ever wanted.
Polls are extra meaningless this election. No one is undecided between the Toupee and Biden. If there’s any indecision on either side, it’s between voting for the party’s nominee or not voting in the presidential election.
Which is why it continues to baffle that the Democratic campaign strategy has been mostly if not entirely “I’m not quite as bad as the Other Guy!”
Trolls in shambles right now.
