Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
57% chance of Trump. If I thought the odds were otherwise, I would bet otherwise: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That’s what I’d bet on if I were a betting man.
The 1% will benefit.
I think we’ll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.
According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we’re still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn’t on the ballot thing are more accurate. :(
It’s certainly possible. The polls are showing it’s effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don’t have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.
I’ve been reading some discussions this week about fake polls claiming Republicans are winning to make Dems think there’s no point in voting. Apparently it was a technique used in a previous recent election? It would explain all the results I’ve seen in the last few days showing them with a strong lead, where a week or two ago other polls showed an even race. Doesn’t really matter though, everyone should remember that the only thing that counts is getting out and casting your vote no matter what the polls might suggest.
There have been a lot of Republican polls posted, part of their “flood the zone” strategy. But I think even the nonpartisan polls are underestimating Dem support a bit.
One can hope, but I suspect nobody will be announcing a victor on Tuesday night.
Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I’ll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform…
Trump outperformed polling in both of the last elections, and the polls are much closer now, so if he even just outperforms the same amount as before he wins.
I think the polls have tried to correct for this, and I also believe Kamala has huge and sophisticated ground game operation aimed at turnout while Trump’s team seems completely disorganized. So I wonder if that advantage in operational sophistication counts for anything.
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
Would U.S.A. foreign policy be drastically affected by who becomes the president?
As a non-American, I think it’d have more impact on the people of the U.S.A and maybe immediate neighbours like Mexico.I don’t know, to quote someone I read here: “The world shits when the US farts”
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
That maybe a consequence but US foreign policy might improve or remain unchanged under Trump.
foreign policy might improve under Trump
Let’s see, Israel kills all Palestinians, Russia takes over Ukraine, then North Korea and China initiate actions against South Korea and Taiwan. You have an unusual definition of improve.
Israel will kill Palestinians no matter who comes to power in US. Maybe if Israel doesnt pay him personally anything he might reduce their supplies. If they pay him as they pay all the other politicians it will be business as usual.
At least there would be a chance that spineless and derelict UN will fall.
Haha, u kidding?
They will improve with authoritarians, where Trump can personally benefit from.
For everyone else it will worsen and set global policies back by at least one decade.
Improve in the sense it will stop butting it’s nose everywhere.
You’re a piss poor anarchist if you want the the orange fascist to win
Anarchism is not chaos, which is what it seems like you think it means. Anarchism is the opposition to hierarchy and is thus directly opposed to fascism and therefore Trump. No anarchist wants to see Trump win because it means fascism has won.
They’ll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. There’s no avoiding it.
What does Trump winning have to do with Anarchy?
Same story we saw in 2016, Trump has no policy other than destroying American institutions and the status quo, so people get this sort of collapse fetish and pick him for that reason alone.
They mean in the “chaos” sense, not the Lemmy-friendly sense.
On the other hand, a severe degradation of federal institutions would by necessity promote community-based cooperation. Like in any other disaster, natural or otherwise.
Nobody wants to see it happen this way, but it might be the catalyst we get.
Violence.
I mean, we’re already a capitol storming and a few assassination attempts in. You need to be a bit more specific.
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
Canadian here. Mostly concern. Anybody here that thinks it’s a fun show hasn’t thought very far ahead.
As a Brazilian, this too. Also, some PTSD from remembering recent Brazilian elections (sometimes USA and Brazil are so similar that they seem like brothers separated at birth, your Trump was our Bolsonaro, your Biden is our Lula, I wouldn’t be surprised if your Harris is our Dilma without the “stockpiling of wind” thing).
As a non-American, this. And I honestly don’t understand why so many people in our neck of the woods aren’t more concerned about this. You guys are such a heavy hitter from a socio-economical standpoint, that anything which goes down in your country will inevitably affect everyone else.
I have a theory as to why people in my country discuss US politics more than our own. People want to talk about something more ‘important’ than the latest reality talent show, but don’t want to risk talking about local politics. US politics is square in the middle, splashed across our feeds constantly.
I just can’t wait until elections continue their downward spiral, and presidential candidates need to sing country songs to Snoop Dog so they don’t get voted off the island.
Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the ‘culture war’.
Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there’s going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don’t expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.
Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn’t have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.
We won’t have a clear winner. No matter which candidate “wins”, there will be widespread allegations of voter fraud. There will be protests. Biden will declare a national emergency. What happens after that? I don’t know. But I am prepared for major social unrest.
A large number of people from both major parties are absolutely unwilling to accept a win by the opposing candidate. I’ve never seen the country so divided.
I hope you are right about the left not accepting a Trump win. I don’t even know why he’s a legitimate candidate with the whole insurrection thing. Openly gaming the election? Felonies? I don’t think the US can survive four more years of this guy, so I think the time for passively accepting his shenanigans is over.
Civil war, because Trump won’t accept the result and Musk will be fueling the hate.
The material conditions aren’t ripe for a civil war just yet, nor for a revolution. Things have not gotten dire for the US Empire abroad just yet.
I don’t know, somebody would have to start shooting back. The only real candidate is the existing military, and I’m not sure they or the Democrats are up for it.
Harris wins comfortably. Lots of lawsuits. Even more violence.
I’m off that week so I predict I’ll be pretty drunk regardless of the result
