Key quote:
Biden’s defiance against calls for him to leave the presidential campaign after last month’s debate have only worsened his chances in November, Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.
“Biden was losing pre-debate. Now, he’s losing by a bit more,” she said, adding that the possibility Biden leaves the race at this point is “remote.”
Citing postdebate polling, Cook announced it will move Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”
Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the “R” side for quite some time now.
I’m not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.
This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.
Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/Here’s what it looks mapped out:
Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.
This poll came out an hour ago. Maps not up to date yet.
The map is my own creation based on the polling data linked.
And how accurate has 538 been lately? Didn’t they have Clinton winning in 2016?
This isn’t about their predictions, it’s looking at recent polling data they are aggregating.
And polling data is seriously flawed. I suggest people vote as if there are no polls.
It can be flawed, which is why you track multiple polls over time.
Using the same process outlined above, I watched these states go from pro-Biden, to toss-up, to pro-Trump, and now stronger pro-Trump.
It’s less about the actual numbers and more about the momentum. Biden’s campaign is running out of steam, Trump’s is gaining momentum.
Well, I can honestly say that as a cis white male, I will have little to worry about when Biden looses. And if I left it at this, no one would ever hear from me.
But I have LGBTQ in my family, my blood. And many friends that will be hurt by another four years of Trump.
So… this is where we’re at.
You have a shit ton of people in your community- urging people to not vote because “old!” While a rapist/convicted felon is waltzing right through the mess, not even being questioned about how or why he lied in every answer he gave.
These people are fucking lunatics man. This should be a no brainer. Biden’s podium could poll worse than Trump and I’d vote for it.
These people are willing to destroy a nation if it means an old man is not elected. Note how I didn’t say genocide supporter- yeah. It’s a non issue now with them. Did you notice?
Ah, one of those steadfast LGBTQ allies who also hates SJWs. That’s a coherent personality, but most of the examples of it are Republicans who discovered the leopards would eat their loved ones faces (or usually that their loved ones were revealed as leopard prey), but then didn’t evaluate any of the other social propaganda they had bought into.
Riiight. Cool story. I especially LOVE how you created an entire persona for me having had a brief conversation of no more than a few paragraphs.
Speaks volumes about how seriously you should be taken. Listen up, You have no clue who I am, what I do- and who I care for… and the fact that you found yourself in a situation where you thought making assumptions would be a good idea, doesn’t just show who you are, it proves my point.
Biden has been consistently polling behind the Democrats who also have a state-wide election. If it’s flawed it’s in a very specific way that overweights the specific kind of Democratic voter that supports their state candidate and doesn’t support Biden. That’s not particularly likely.
538 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, while a lot of other poll aggregators were giving him single digit chances.
Biden is unpopular and losing. He was unpopular and losing before the debate and he’s still unpopular and losing. He barely beat an impeached Trump that oversaw almost a million Covid deaths and a wrecked economy in 2020, and that was when he could still string two coherent sentences together.
Why are so many liberals determined to bury their heads in the sand about this? The Democratic Party is casually coasting towards catastrophe.
Believe me, no one is burying their heads in the sand. The NY Times just spent like two weeks covering nothing but Biden’s age. I had to scroll down like 1500px to find the fucking French election results and I’m not even sure they bothered to send someone to cover the hurricane that wrecked multiple countries and hit one of the most populous regions of the country.
If you believe this is the most important election in our lifetimes and believe the polls and analysis that put Biden in a bad and worsening position, it’s kind of the most important story in the country, if not the world. There’s a reason it’s like a 50% of all political discussions here.
It’s an important story! But The NY Times has beclowned itself by trying to create a narrative instead of just covering it. There were well over 200 articles and 99% were gossip or fanfiction masquerading as news stories. That’s an editorial decision, not a news-based one. They even made a whole graphic counting which Democrats have defected. (It was 6 house members and 0 Senators and governors.)
It kind of reminded me of when they kept writing articles saying the president of MIT still hasn’t resigned even though that was an utterly unimportant story. Just a bunch of articles about nothing happening.
Hmmm… I wonder if it has anything to do with all the non voting SJWs that show up every four years to demand bullshit they don’t even understand.
Also, it’s okay for them to be woefully wrong, as long as others are…. wronger?
“bullshit SJWs”
k lol.
SJWs
The mask is slipping.
What mask? The fact that I’m positioned right between willful ignorance on the far left, and willful ignorance on the far right- allows me to call it out as I see it. SJWs are known to speak a lot and say very little.
Your vote is what matters now. If you wanted change, you should have started working on that four years ago. It’s too fucking late now.
Either vote to keep democracy alive, or be part of its demise. We’re too late in the game to kiss asses.
The people complaining about SJWs are conservatives. I’m happy if you’re going to be VBNMW in this election, but you’re not on our team and have no business lecturing people who actually care about all these “social justice” things you think are annoying because learning new words is hard. “Enlightened centrist” is a political slur for a very good reason.
The people complaining about SJWs are people who see them for what they are.
Keyboard warriors. People who whine about shit all day on the internet- and do nothing about it.
It’s not a political stance to call them out. It’s just observation. I’m sorry this upsets you, but it’s better you hear it from someone….
Removed by mod
Removed, civility.
Neat!
Imagine being downvoted for posting polls lol. I hate to invoke Reddit, but for all the (very legitimate!) criticism people had of a The Donald and other heavily censored and astroturfed conservative communities, internet liberals created the exact same echo chambers for themselves that suddenly burst after the debate. I guess they have no idea for to handle that they’ve been lied to about Biden and the state of the election, and all they can do is downvote the truth?
I’m a mod, I’ve handled worse. :)
People “unskewing” the polls is a tradition as old as polls, I’m sure.
This is so dumb- let’s elect Hitler’s biggest fan cause the other guy is slightly not as good as I’d like.
ITs not about what I like or dont like.
Biden isn’t winning this race. He is and will continue to lose to Trump.
If you dont want Trump, you must replace Biden.
Unfortunately, that only goes a couple of ways:
- Biden stays in and loses.
- Biden drops out for Kamala, who loses, because nobody likes her.
- The DNC replaces both of them, and that candidate loses because the voters believe they are owed a choice.
The only way I see a “D” win is for Joe to die in office, Kamala picks up the reins and gets a massive sympathy vote.
I mean, you and others where we’re advocating that Biden was our only chance of beating Trump, and you in particular worked to silence voices trying to inform people that Biden was not winning this election.
So you shouldn’t be surprised that I weight your opinion on what “will” happen politically to effectively 0.
R2O got a timeout for admitting that his relentless doom posting was agenda based, not because they were wrong. :)
I actually agreed with a lot of the articles posted.
Biden is walking a very fine line and since the debate, he’s on the wrong side of it. He’s confident he will recover, I think that’s delusional.
What I can guarantee will happen next is this:
- Trump will get a nice bump out of the convention starting 7/15 through 7/18.
There will be a bigger bump when he announces his VP pick.
-
Without the conviction sentencing, the bump will be bigger than expected which will inspire more doom posting and calls for Biden to step aside.
-
Biden will power through to the Democratic convention in August.
Any more mis-steps or health scares between now and August? That will make it hard to continue.
Sure, put Bernie up, I’ll vote for him again.
Why do you insist on these insane projections?
Harris is fine. Fucking Newsom is fine. Fucking ANYONE who is able to get through a fucking sentence where they remember how the sentence started is fine. It would also be great if they didn’t advocate for the dropping bombs on brown babies so we could win back MI/ MN/ and WI, but at this point, Biden has an effectively 0% chance of winning this thing.
If you advocate for him, or are trying to prevent a conversation that is critical of him, YOU are a Trump supporter.
I’m not advocating for anyone other than not trump- but I am concerned that putting someone up that no one knows much about is gonna cause people to just not vote out of frustration/apathy/ignorance, and then what happens?
That hand wringing attitude has left us with a incompetent candidate who is absolutely losing this race.
People know about Biden. He’s losing. This would be a fine argument if he was just winning but looked shaky, but that’s not the situation.
Harris will lose. She’s less popular than Hillary Clinton - that’s fucking impressive.
So I very much object to “Harris is fine”.
WE KNOW.
You cats don’t shut up about it, and have no other ideas for the greatest issues of our times… you should start a religion.
It’s okay guys because his vibe from crowd sizes overrides aggregate Grade-A polling. And if he loses, well, at least he did his goodest.
The goodest.
Sadly, we won’t know what we had until it’s gone.
Poll don’t vote.
There are people here that seem to actively WANT you to not vote against Trump. They know what’s at stake. And they know they can’t come here and try to pump anyone up about another four years with Trump. They’re aware of the demographic here on lemmy.
So they do the next best thing-
Attack his competition.
They did it in 2016, and again in 2020. Now they’re trying to seal the deal. They are not here in good faith. They are here to disrupt an election. Don’t let them.
Vote like lives depend on it. Because while yours may be safe- many won’t be.
I am voting, but in the presidential race, it literally doesn’t matter in the two states I’ve lived in, just as it never has.
Good you’re voting. I’m not her to make Biden look like a saint. I fucking can’t stand the guy. But he’s safe in comparison and unlike many here- I don’t live with my head in the clouds dreaming of how things should be.
If these people want a better candidate, they should help out between elections and not just throw temper tantrums every four years. Because while The DNC is guilty on their own… these kids aren’t helping matters by not paying attention.
Voting for Biden is a vote for Trump. Pretending this guy can do anything other than hand the entirety of the house, the senate, and the white house is what people, like yourself, who have gaslit themselves into a fantasy world believe.
You don’t live in reality @JimSamtanko@lemm.ee .
You specifically, in your effort to beat people into submission around the deep and obvious flaws Biden has, you are why the Democrats are losing and will continue to lose this election.
You specifically are why Trump is winning handily at this point.
The only option to stop Trump at this point is to drop Biden. Arguing that we just need to plug our noses, is, and always has been, an argument for Trump.
Wut? The only vote left for Biden is the general election where it’s the opposite of a vote for Trump. Maybe you mean advocating for him, but that’s a really questionable word choice. He should be replaced by someone else, but if Biden is available to vote for, voting for him is the only way to vote against Trump.
I’m in another thread arguing with a certified Trumper that would absolutely agree with you.
Imagine that. You two have so much in common.
And it hasn’t gone unnoticed how you all dropped your bleeding hearts for Palestine in favor of this new “biDeN oLd!’ bit.
I mean, I think you’ve got far far more in common with a Trump supporter than I do. For example, I would do whatever it takes to prevent Trump from taking the White house, even as far as swapping out the candidate when they are clearly losing.
While you’re saying you’d do anything to keep trump out of the white house, it sure seems like you’re trying to sow division. I’m going to go ahead and tag you in Lemmy as a trump supporter. Let that sink in, you appear to be no different than a trump sycophant by the tone of your comments. If that bothers you, then maybe take a closer look at what you’re saying.
If you’re truly genuine in your goal of keeping trump out, then try supporting his competition. Our voting system means there’s no other choice at this point.
Biden cant win. He’ cant. Literally no federal position has ever been won by someone polling at 35%.
You are a Trump supporter if you are still advocating for Biden.
What are you actually doing to stop Trump though? I understand you would support swapping him out, but that isn’t actually you doing anything.
Let’s hear about what you are actively doing to fulfill your “whatever it takes” promise.
I would do whatever it takes to prevent Trump from taking the White house,
Cool. You That’s a vote for Biden then?
Cue Meatloaf: “…BUT I WON’T DO THAT!”
Oh he’s not. He just needs to be called out until he disappears like the rest of them
It’s like- propagandist whack-a-mole.
I’m pretty sure the people voting for Trump and those that are suppressing the Biden vote because “Biden can’t win” are the reasons Trump is polling ahead of Biden.
There’s a couple really simple things you can do to help defeat Trump. First, vote for the person running against Trump. The second, stop trying to suppress the vote for the person running against Trump. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.
Thats the most un-rooted delusional thought I’ve seen expressed today.
haha, I would absolutely love to hear you come up with a solid explanation for how voting for Biden will help Trump win.
He’s a doomer. His last seven posts have been about how Biden “can’t win”. He’s just distracting from trump’s diaper shitting craziness.
I read something today about trump’s religious advisor being busted for kiddie porn. Just block and move on.
It’s a troll account. I tagged them months ago. Just block or downvote and don’t waste time on them.
